Match Info

Superettan - Round 17

Date: 3 August 2026, Monday

Location: Behrn Arena (Örebro)

Referee: Mattsson E. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Sweden	TV12, TV4 Play
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Örebro		Värnamo

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.30	2.50
	2.45	3.30	2.55
	2.32	3.35	2.80
	2.64	3.45	2.74
	2.4	3.43	2.81	Watch
	2.60	3.40	2.60
	2.54	3.43	2.60	Watch
	2.44	3.30	2.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.12)	3.37 ↓ (3.57)	2.65 ↓ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Örebro
37.4%

Draw
27.5%

Värnamo
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

26.1%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

24.3%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Örebro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Örebro's form might have worsened.

Värnamo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Värnamo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Örebro than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Värnamo than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Örebro - Värnamo Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Örebro will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Värnamo will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Örebro: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
75. Ojrzynski J. (G) 22. Bovalina G. 3. Sandberg V. 15. Astvald L. 11. Redenstrand C. 8. Kusu M. 5. Ortmark J. 9. Yakoub A. 10. Wiedesheim-Paul R. 99. Yasin A. 17. Holmberg K. (C)	1. Keto H. (G) 18. Motaraghebjafarpour A. 5. Bergqvist D. 2. Rapp J. 3. Bjornstrom A. 7. Johansson C. 10. Claesson V. (C) 4. Ohlsson S. 9. Meriluoto K. 14. Antonsson M. 8. Andersson H.
Substitutes
14. Dana H. 2. Ghasem A. 18. Hrastovina E. 6. Ibrahimbegovic E. 4. McCue E. 30. Runheim B. (G) 12. Salihovic D. 21. Wahlstrom F. 7. Wikman S.	21. Abdulrazak I. 33. Akinfenwa M. 15. Coulibaly S. 28. Diallo M. C. 19. Freij E. 13. Jansson S. 16. Kujundzic A. 39. Sapielak B. (G) 34. Zulovic B.
Coaches
Norling R.	Bergstrand K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Wiedesheim-Paul R. ⚽, Holmberg K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Kusu M. ↓, Ibrahimbegovic E. ↑,
49', 1 - 1, Bjornstrom A. ⚽,
53', 1 - 2, Claesson V. ⚽,
56', 1 - 3, Meriluoto K. ⚽,
61', Yasin A. ↓, Wikman S. ↑,
67', Astvald L. ↓, McCue E. ↑,
68', Andersson H. ↓, Jansson S. ↑,
84', Ibrahimbegovic E. 🟨,
85', Johansson C. ↓, Freij E. ↑,
87', Holmberg K. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 in the zone Division 1 ~ Norra (Relegation) and 15 in the zone Relegation).

Örebro has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Värnamo is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Örebro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Örebro could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Örebro won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:0. (average 2.5:0).

Including home matches between the teams, Örebro won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Varnamo	25	8	5	12	33:45	-12	29
14	Orebro	25	5	9	11	27:39	-12	24

Last Results with these Odds

Värnamo - the odds 3.13 are the expected chance of winning is 29.82%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Örebro SK
Swedish Superettan
27.07.26	Örebro - Oddevold	0:0 ✺
19.07.26	United Nordic - Örebro	2:0 ✺
27.06.26	Ljungskile - Örebro	3:2 ✺
22.06.26	Örebro - Sandviken	1:1 ✺
14.06.26	Falkenberg - Örebro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TLLTT
- IFK Värnamo
Swedish Superettan
25.07.26	Värnamo - Brage	0:0 ✺
19.07.26	Värnamo - Ljungskile	2:3 ✺
28.06.26	Landskrona - Värnamo	1:0 ✺
21.06.26	Brage - Värnamo	5:1 ✺
16.06.26	Värnamo - Helsingborg	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Superettan
12.05.26	Värnamo - Örebro	0:1
02.08.13	Värnamo - Örebro	0:5
08.04.13	Örebro - Värnamo	2:0
Svenska Cupen
02.03.13	Örebro - Värnamo	2:0

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