Match Info

Super Lig - Round 33

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium (Istanbul)

Referee: Hasova G. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	İstanbul Başakşehir		Samsunspor

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.9	3.9	Watch
	1.83	3.75	3.8
	1.82	3.55	4.08	Watch
	1.85	3.85	4.49
	1.83	3.53	4.49	Watch
	1.75	3.5	4
	1.86	3.74	4.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (1.89)	3.69 ↑ (3.57)	4.17 ↑ (4.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

İstanbul Başakşehir
51.9%

Draw
25.5%

Samsunspor
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

26.5%

23.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

26.1%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

İstanbul Başakşehir has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Samsunspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for İstanbul Başakşehir than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samsunspor than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	35.7%	21.4%

İstanbul Başakşehir - Samsunspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Başakşehir will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Samsunspor will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Başakşehir: 17% – 68.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Başakşehir (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Sengezer M. (G) 42. Sahiner O. (C) 5. Duarte L. 3. Opoku J. 88. Karatas K. 8. Kemen O. 13. Crespo M. 7. Sari Y. 14. Shomurodov E. 25. Harit A. 91. Yildirim B.	1. Kocuk O. (G) 2. Mendes J. 37. Satka L. (C) 4. Van Drongelen R. 17. Tomasson L. 21. Holse C. 29. Makoumbou A. 19. Ndiaye C. 55. Cift Y. E. 7. Tavsan E. 9. Marius
Substitutes
80. Alemdar D. (G) 27. Ba O. 77. Brnic I. 6. Bulut O. 10. Da Costa N. 4. Ergun O. 11. Fayzullaev A. 20. Gunes U. 21. Operi C. 9. Selke D.	23. Albak E. 24. Borevkovic T. 15. Diabbate A. B. 77. Sousa A. 48. Toruz E. B. (G) 33. Ustun E. (G) 18. Yavru Z.
Coaches
Sahin N.	Fink T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Shomurodov E. (Penalty Awarded),
21', Satka L. ↓, Borevkovic T. ↑,
24', Yildirim B. ↓, Selke D. ↑,
41', Makoumbou A. 🟨,
43', 2 - 0, Sari Y. ⚽, Shomurodov E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Opoku J. 🟨,
58', Harit A. 🟨,
69', Mendes J. 🟨,
70', Harit A. ↓, Fayzullaev A. ↑,
74', Cift Y. E. ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
76', Crespo M. ↓, Ergun O. ↑,
76', Sari Y. ↓, Brnic I. ↑,
76', Duarte L. ↓, Ba O. ↑,
78', 3 - 0, Fayzullaev A. ⚽,
86', Mendes J. ↓, Yavru Z. ↑,
86', Tavsan E. ↓, Albak E. ↑,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 6 and 7)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Başakşehir won 3.

Başakşehir has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Samsunspor is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Samsunspor may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Başakşehir is the team to beat.

There will not play in Samsunspor: Assoumou J. (Knee Injury) Cetin B. (Knee Injury) Coulibaly T. (Yellow Cards) Gonul S. (Yellow Cards) Kilinc E. (Inactive) Sousa A. (Inactive) Yuksel C. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Samsunspor: Ntcham O. (Inactive)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Başakşehir won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.1:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Başakşehir won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Basaksehir	6	2	1	3	10:11	-1	7
16	Samsunspor	7	1	1	5	6:15	-9	4

Last Results with these Odds

İstanbul Başakşehir - the odds 1.89 are the expected chance of winning is 50.04%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- İstanbul Başakşehir
Turkish Super League
02.05.26	Fenerbahçe - İstanbul Başakşehir	3:1 ✺
24.04.26	İstanbul Başakşehir - Kasımpaşa	4:0 ✺
19.04.26	Trabzonspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	İstanbul Başakşehir - Gençlerbirliği	3:0 ✺
06.04.26	Kocaelispor - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWTWT
- Samsunspor
Turkish Super League
02.05.26	Samsunspor - Galatasaray	4:1 ✺
27.04.26	Alanyaspor - Samsunspor	2:3 ✺
Turkish Cup
23.04.26	Samsunspor - Trabzonspor	0:1 penalties ✺
Turkish Super League
19.04.26	Samsunspor - Beşiktaş	2:1 ✺
13.04.26	Eyüpspor - Samsunspor	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
14.12.25	Samsunspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:2
01.02.25	İstanbul Başakşehir - Samsunspor	4:0
18.09.24	Samsunspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	2:0
03.03.24	İstanbul Başakşehir - Samsunspor	1:0
22.10.23	Samsunspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:0
Turkish First League
11.01.14	İstanbul Başakşehir - Samsunspor	1:3
17.08.13	Samsunspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:1

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