Match Info

CROATIA: HNL - Round 24

Date: 2 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Šubićevac (Šibenik)

Referee: Bel D. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Croatia	MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go


	Šibenik		Varaždin

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.85	3.1	Watch
	2.6	2.83	3.22
				Watch
	2.45	2.9	3
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↓ (2.98)	2.86 ↓ (3.17)	3.11 ↑ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Šibenik
37.2%

Draw
32.7%

Varaždin
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

29.4%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.5%

29.1%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Šibenik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Šibenik's performance.

Varaždin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Varaždin might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Šibenik than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Šibenik that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varaždin than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Varaždin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	45.5%	45.5%

Šibenik - Varaždin Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Šibenik will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Varaždin will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Varaždin: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Filipovic I. (G) 5. Cvek L. 55. Peric S. 24. Puncec R. 43. Grzan S. 21. Pozo I. 8. Bakic O. 32. Durakovic E. 11. Laca I. 18. Santini I. (C) 9. Bozic I.	1. Zelenika O. (C) 4. Skaricic L. 16. Tepsic N. 13. Mladenovski M. 23. Maglica F. 24. Marina M. 8. Duvnjak T. 25. Borsic A. 7. Poldrugac J. 9. Dabro M. 11. Antunovic M.
Substitutes
1. Djakovic A. (G) 36. Kavelj A. 22. Kolega T. 17. Koscevic Z. 27. Kulusic L. 3. Liu A. 25. Mohorovic P. (G) 88. Prekodravac M. 28. Roca I. 30. Zdunic B. 44. Zuta L.	30. Alic E. 44. Barac M. 77. Cuic M. 3. Jovanov V. 26. Mazari A. 14. Sierra J. 12. Silic J. (G) 21. Tomic T. (G) 15. Vuk M.
Coaches
Vidovic R.	Safaric N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Maglica F. ⚽,
36', Bakic O. 🟨,
38', Duvnjak T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Dabro M. ↓, Vuk M. ↑,
46', Bakic O. ↓, Kavelj A. ↑,
46', Durakovic E. ↓, Zuta L. ↑,
49', Cvek L. 🟨,
62', Laca I. ↓, Roca I. ↑,
62', Bozic I. ↓, Kulusic L. ↑,
65', Pozo I. 🟨,
80', Marina M. 🟨,
80', Poldrugac J. ↓, Cuic M. ↑,
81', Mladenovski M. ↓, Barac M. ↑,
84', Antunovic M. ↓, Sierra J. ↑,
85', Peric S. 🟨,
86', 0 - 2, Duvnjak T. ⚽,
90+4', Duvnjak T. ↓, Alic E. ↑,
90+5', Alic E. 🟨,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation ~ Prva NL and 5).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Šibenik won 0.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Šibenik could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Šibenik: Agyemang M. (Yellow Cards) Nizic Z. (Injury)

There will not play in Varaždin: Ba L. (Yellow Cards) Latkovic A. (Yellow Cards) Mamic L. (Red Card) Nevers T. (Injury)

Last 15 head-to-head matches Šibenik won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 16:21 (average 1.1:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Šibenik won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5:6 (average 0.7:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HNK Šibenik
Croatian HNL
23.02.25	Gorica - Šibenik	1:0 ✺
14.02.25	Šibenik - Lokomotiva Zagreb	1:2 ✺
07.02.25	Dinamo Zagreb - Šibenik	3:0 ✺
01.02.25	Šibenik - Slaven Belupo	1:1 ✺
24.01.25	Osijek - Šibenik	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LLLTT
- NK Varaždin
Croatian HNL
21.02.25	Lokomotiva Zagreb - Varaždin	1:0 ✺
16.02.25	Varaždin - Slaven Belupo	0:1 ✺
08.02.25	Hajduk Split - Varaždin	1:0 ✺
01.02.25	Varaždin - Rijeka	1:0 ✺
25.01.25	Gorica - Varaždin	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Croatian HNL
29.11.24	Varaždin - Šibenik	2:1
15.09.24	Šibenik - Varaždin	0:0
05.05.23	Šibenik - Varaždin	0:2
04.03.23	Varaždin - Šibenik	2:0
28.10.22	Šibenik - Varaždin	1:2
20.08.22	Varaždin - Šibenik	2:2
16.04.21	Varaždin - Šibenik	1:1

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