Match Info

Serie B - Round 8

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports
Peru	Zapping Sports


	22 de Julio		9 de Octubre

	1	X	2
	3.35	2.88	2.15
	3.55	2.85	2.24
	3.58	2.95	2.22	Watch
	3.4	2.63	2.2
	3.51	2.77	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.48 ↓ (3.58)	2.82 ↓ (2.89)	2.2 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

22 de Julio
26.2%

Draw
32.4%

9 de Octubre
41.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.1%

32.3%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.1%

31%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

22 de Julio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

9 de Octubre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for 22 de Julio than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for 9 de Octubre than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

22 de Julio - 9 de Octubre Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

(0 - 1)

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 11 in the zone Serie B (Relegation Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion Group: )).

22 de Julio is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

9 de Octubre is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

9 de Octubre may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

9 de Octubre is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, 22 de Julio won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Including home match between the teams, 22 de Julio won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

Promotion Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Nueve de Octubre	28	11	12	5	31:20	11	45

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 22 de Julio FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
29.04.26	22 de Julio - Gualaceo	0:0 ✺
25.04.26	Vinotinto - 22 de Julio	2:0 ✺
17.04.26	22 de Julio - Cumbayá	1:3 ✺
08.04.26	Atlético Rojiblanco - 22 de Julio	1:0 ✺
03.04.26	22 de Julio - Deportivo Santo Domingo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TLLLT
- 9 de Octubre FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
29.04.26	9 de Octubre - Cumbayá	1:0 ✺
26.04.26	Gualaceo - 9 de Octubre	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	9 de Octubre - LDU Portoviejo	3:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
14.04.26	Nazareno - 9 de Octubre	0:4 ✺
Ecuadorian Serie B
08.04.26	Vinotinto - 9 de Octubre	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
16.08.25	22 de Julio - 9 de Octubre	1:0
18.03.25	9 de Octubre - 22 de Julio	0:0

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