Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 28

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday


	Añorga		Derio

	1	X	2
	3.05	3.35	2.05
	3.56	3.65	1.88
	4.25	2.79	2.05	Watch
	3.4	3.3	1.95
	3.29	3.4	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.51 ↑ (2.83)	3.3 ↓ (3.31)	1.98 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Añorga
26.1%

Draw
27.8%

Derio
46.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

27.4%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

26.6%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Añorga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Añorga's form might have worsened.

Derio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Derio's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Añorga than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derio than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Añorga - Derio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', 1 - 0, ⚽,
76', 2 - 0, ⚽,
88', 3 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 4 (Play Offs: )).

Añorga has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Derio is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Añorga won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:6. (average 0:3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Derio	5	3	2	0	7:2	5	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Añorga KKE
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
19.03.26	Touring KE - Añorga	3:1 ✺
14.03.26	Añorga - Alavés C	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Añorga	3:0 ✺
28.02.26	Añorga - Leioa	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	Eibar C - Añorga	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWLLL
- CD Derio
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
19.03.26	Derio - Durango	4:0 ✺
15.03.26	Aretxabaleta - Derio	1:2 ✺
08.03.26	Derio - Zamudio	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Santurtzi - Derio	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Pasaia - Derio	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
15.11.25	Derio - Añorga	4:0
20.01.24	Derio - Añorga	2:0

Añorga - Derio: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide