Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Round 17

Date: 20 January 2026, Tuesday


	AC Libertas		Domagnano

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.85	1.49	Watch
	6.37	4.44	1.42
	5.5	3.4	1.53
	5.5	3.67	1.63
	5.33	3.8	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.64 ↓ (8)	3.83 ↓ (4.8)	1.52 ↑ (1.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AC Libertas
16.2%

Draw
23.8%

Domagnano
60%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.4%

19%

69.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10.9%

18.2%

72.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AC Libertas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Domagnano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Domagnano might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AC Libertas than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with AC Libertas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Domagnano than the current prediction. (+12.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Domagnano could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

AC Libertas - Domagnano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45', 1 - 0, Quarta A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
73', 2 - 0, Nicolini T. ⚽, Baiardi R. (A),
90+3', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AC Libertas won 1.

Recent form of AC Libertas has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Domagnano is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Domagnano has had a series of home games.

In this match, Domagnano is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, AC Libertas won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 25:17. (average 1.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, AC Libertas won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:4. (average 2.7:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Domagnano	4	2	0	2	7:6	1	6
8	Libertas	4	1	2	1	4:5	-1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Libertas
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
17.01.26	San Marino Academy U22 - AC Libertas	2:0 ✺
21.12.25	Tre Penne - AC Libertas	5:0 ✺
13.12.25	AC Libertas - Tre Fiori	0:4 ✺
06.12.25	Juvenes-Dogana - AC Libertas	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	AC Libertas - Fiorentino	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LLLWL
- FC Domagnano
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
17.01.26	Domagnano - Pennarossa	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Domagnano - San Giovanni	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	La Fiorita - Domagnano	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Domagnano - Faetano	4:1 ✺
29.11.25	Domagnano - Virtus	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 TTTWW

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
14.09.25	Domagnano - AC Libertas	5:2
05.04.25	AC Libertas - Domagnano	1:0
08.12.24	Domagnano - AC Libertas	3:0
17.02.24	AC Libertas - Domagnano	0:2
21.10.23	Domagnano - AC Libertas	1:0
01.04.23	AC Libertas - Domagnano	3:0
03.12.22	Domagnano - AC Libertas	1:1

AC Libertas - Domagnano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide