Match Info

Super League - Round 17

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: AEL FC Arena (Larissa)

Referee: Zampalas S. (Gre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1


	AEL Larissa		Aris

	1	X	2
	4.2	3	2.01	Watch
	4.47	3.31	1.86	Watch
	3.75	2.9	2.1
	4.1	3.04	2.03	Watch
	4.33	3.1	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.17 ↓ (4.7)	3.07 ↓ (3.15)	1.99 ↑ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AEL Larissa
22.5%

Draw
30.5%

Aris
47%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.8%

29.5%

50.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.1%

28.4%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AEL Larissa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Aris has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEL Larissa than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aris than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aris could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	7.1%	35.7%

AEL Larissa - Aris Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Larissa will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Aris will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Larissa: 31.2% – 83%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Larissa (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Larissa (4.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Larissa (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Anagnostopoulos A. (G) 14. Ferigra E. 6. Pantelakis E. 4. Iliadis T. 64. Deligiannidis P. 90. Sourlis V. 8. Perez F. 12. Kossonou A. 25. Sagal A. 11. Mourgos S. (C) 29. Tupta L.	13. Dioudis S. (G) 15. Tejero A. 4. Fabiano 20. Sonko Sundberg N. 27. Fadiga N. 6. Galanopoulos K. (C) 8. Monchu 7. Perez C. 77. Panagidis M. 28. Dudu 80. Moron L.
Substitutes
10. Andrada L. 2. Apostolakis K. 18. Chatzistravos Z. 17. Diminikos D. 23. Garate L. 1. Melissas N. (G) 20. Olafsson D. 19. Pasas G. 26. Staikos P. 21. Venetikidis T. (G)	33. Athanasiadis G. (G) 49. Boussaid O. 11. Donis A. 17. Frydek M. 25. Gning M. 78. Hongla M. 30. Kamtsis C. 91. Karaj E. (G) 88. Kerkez M. 26. Misehouy G. 18. Morutan O. 10. Racic U.
Coaches
Pantelidis S.	Jimenez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Sagal A. ⚽, Mourgos S. (A),
19', Melissas N. 🟨,
37', Monchu 🟨,
37', Perez F. 🟨,
39', Panagidis M. 🟨,
45+2', Mourgos S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Panagidis M. ↓, Misehouy G. ↑,
56', Galanopoulos K. ↓, Hongla M. ↑,
56', Dudu ↓, Boussaid O. ↑,
60', Tejero A. 🟨,
65', Mourgos S. ↓, Garate L. ↑,
66', Perez C. ↓, Racic U. ↑,
66', Moron L. ↓, Morutan O. ↑,
74', Sagal A. ↓, Olafsson D. ↑,
77', Kossonou A. 🟨,
81', Deligiannidis P. ↓, Apostolakis K. ↑,
81', Tupta L. ↓, Chatzistravos Z. ↑,
90', Sonko Sundberg N. 🟨,
90+3', Olafsson D. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 13 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Conference League Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Larissa won 0.

Larissa is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Aris has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Larissa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Aris will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Larissa: Atanasov J. (Yellow Cards) Macon Y. (Red Card)

There will not play in Aris: Alfarela M. (Foot Injury) Hongla M. (Injury) Mendyl H. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Aris: Misehouy G. (Injury) Voriazidis M. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Larissa won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:12. (average 0.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Larissa won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1).

Outrights of Greek Super League for now

Aris: 0.64%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Aris	5	2	1	2	5:10	-5	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AEL Larissa
Greek Super League
10.01.26	AE Kifisia - AEL Larissa	1:1 ✺
21.12.25	AEL Larissa - Atromitos Athens	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	Levadiakos - AEL Larissa	3:0 ✺
07.12.25	AEL Larissa - Panathinaikos	2:2 ✺
Greek Cup
03.12.25	AEL Larissa - Atromitos Athens	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 TTLTL
- Aris Thessaloniki
Greek Cup
14.01.26	Panathinaikos - Aris	3:0 ✺
Greek Super League
11.01.26	Aris - AEK Athens	1:1 ✺
Greek Cup
06.01.26	Aris - Panetolikos	2:0 ✺
Greek Super League
20.12.25	Asteras Tripolis - Aris	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Aris - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 LTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Greek Super League
29.11.25	Aris - AEL Larissa	2:1
Club Friendly
10.08.21	Aris - AEL Larissa	0:0
Greek Super League
26.01.21	Aris - AEL Larissa	1:0
02.12.20	AEL Larissa - Aris	0:3
11.01.20	AEL Larissa - Aris	0:0
28.09.19	Aris - AEL Larissa	2:3
20.01.19	AEL Larissa - Aris	0:0

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