Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 7 July 2026, Tuesday

Location: Elbasan Arena (Elbasani)

Referee: Orlic I. (Mda)


	AF Elbasani		BATE Borisov

	1	X	2
	1.48	3.8	5.5	Watch
	1.52	3.90	5.75	Watch
	1.52	3.7	6.4
	1.47	4.2	6.42
	1.56	3.8	6.07	Watch
	1.41	4.15	6.35
	1.6	4.05	5.58	Watch
	1.51	4	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.61)	3.95 ↑ (3.64)	6.03 ↑ (5.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AF Elbasani
61.3%

Draw
23.4%

BATE Borisov
15.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.9%

25.2%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59%

24.3%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AF Elbasani has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

BATE Borisov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AF Elbasani than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for BATE Borisov than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	4.5%	4.5%

AF Elbasani - BATE Borisov Predictions

Users Predictions: AF Elbasani will win (20 of 22 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.9% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Aleksovski I. (G) 77. Lila B. 15. Epitaux Y. 4. Lulaj B. (C) 11. Kasa K. 25. Tresa L. 17. Ibrahim A. 18. Kasa A. 79. Diallo I. 9. Hebaj R. 10. Nikaj A.	16. Sokol D. (G) 25. Neskoromnyi N. 33. Rakhmanov A. (C) 5. Sakuta M. 6. Moussakhanian H. 55. Kaplenko K. 7. Angban V. 52. Kress E. 26. Varaksa V. 37. Puerto E. 42. Zhurin A.
Substitutes
14. Barjamaj M. 41. Borici A. 70. Boye I. 6. Dine D. 8. Ibraimi D. 20. Karrica B. 22. Lleshi A. 23. Lukoki Mateso E. 28. Niang O. 1. Totoshi K. (G) 29. Zykollari J.	8. Apanasevich K. 88. Dubovskiy P. 13. Khramtsevich Y. 17. Kolosovskiy P. 44. Mardas M. 28. Mikhnyuk I. 9. Mirskiy N. 10. Rusakov E. 47. Sakhonchik A. 35. Skopets A. (G) 14. Telesh M. 30. Yarmolich A.
Coaches
Gvozdenovic I.	Rogozhkin V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', Zhurin A. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Nikaj A. ⚽, Hebaj R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Zhurin A. ↓, Rusakov E. ↑,
62', Kaplenko K. ↓, Sakhonchik A. ↑,
65', Epitaux Y. 🟨,
67', 1 - 1, Rusakov E. ⚽, Kress E. (A),
74', Hebaj R. ↓, Lukoki Mateso E. ↑,
74', Kasa A. ↓, Barjamaj M. ↑,
82', Varaksa V. ↓, Apanasevich K. ↑,
84', Diallo I. ↓, Karrica B. ↑,
84', Tresa L. ↓, Boye I. ↑,
89', Nikaj A. ↓, Lleshi A. ↑,
90+4', Puerto E. ↓, Khramtsevich Y. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In recent matches, AF Elbasani has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

BATE has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

AF Elbasani may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, AF Elbasani has had a series of home games.

In this match, AF Elbasani is the team to beat.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AF Elbasani
Club Friendly
24.06.26	AF Elbasani - Sutjeska	Canceled ✺
Albanian Super League
31.05.26	Vllaznia Shkodër - AF Elbasani	1:2 ✺
24.05.26	AF Elbasani - Dinamo City	3:0 ✺
17.05.26	AF Elbasani - Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0:4 ✺
10.05.26	AF Elbasani - Tirana	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 ?WWLL
- BATE Borisov
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
02.07.26	BATE Borisov - Gomel	0:1 ✺
27.06.26	Torpedo-BelAZ - BATE Borisov	3:0 ✺
21.06.26	BATE Borisov - Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk	2:3 ✺
Belarusian Cup
17.06.26	Molodechno - BATE Borisov	1:4 ✺
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
12.06.26	Belshina - BATE Borisov	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLLWT

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