Match Info

Allsvenskan - Round 26

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Strawberry Arena (Solna)

Referee: Olofsson T. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	HBO Max, Veikkaus TV
Italy	Amazon Prime Video
Sweden	Discovery+, HBO Max, max Extra 2, TV4 Play


	AIK		Värnamo

	1	X	2
	1.39	5	6.5	Watch
	1.44	4.5	6.25
	1.39	4.8	7.1
	1.4	5.05	7.8
	17.41	9.47	1.11	Watch
	1.42	4.55	6.94	Watch
	1.44	4.6	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.7 ↑ (1.44)	5.42 ↑ (4.58)	6.01 ↓ (6.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AIK
43.5%

Draw
29.7%

Värnamo
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.2%

20.6%

14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.4%

19.9%

13.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AIK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that AIK's form might have worsened.

Värnamo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Värnamo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AIK than the current prediction. (+23.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AIK, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Värnamo than the current prediction. (-13.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Värnamo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

AIK - Värnamo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1, 1st Half - AIK (3.31) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - AIK (1.66) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Värnamo (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: AIK will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. AIK (votes: 4 - 80%). Värnamo (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
15. Nordfeldt K. (G) 46. Geiger Y. 32. Benkovic F. 14. Nissen F. 3. Isherwood T. 33. Csongvai A. 7. Saletros A. (C) 36. Yohanna Z. 10. Celina B. 19. Besirovic D. 29. Filling K.	1. Keto H. (G) 5. Larsson V. (C) 27. Coulibaly S. 4. Mohammed R. 3. Bjornstrom A. 7. Johansson C. 11. Antonsen K. 25. Shamoun N. 18. Alsalkhadi M. 8. Liimatta O. 10. Zeljkovic A.
Substitutes
18. Ali A. 45. Ayari T. 47. Fesshaie A. 20. Flataker E. 8. Hove J. 30. Joelsson K. (G) 48. Kouame A. 44. Teribe A.	6. Andersson H. 39. Andersson V. (G) 14. Antonsson M. 24. Grozdanic E. 16. Kujundzic A. 9. Meriluoto K. 2. Rapp J. 22. Thern S.
Coaches
Thomassen M.	Sandsto A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
15', 0 - 1, Mohammed R. ⚽, Liimatta O. (A),
18', Yohanna Z. ↓, Ayari T. ↑,
19', 0 - 2, Liimatta O. ⚽, Bjornstrom A. (A),
27', 0 - 3, Alsalkhadi M. ⚽, Bjornstrom A. (A),
32', Saletros A. 🟨,
36', Geiger Y. ↓, Flataker E. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Filling K. ↓, Hove J. ↑,
52', Shamoun N. ↓, Meriluoto K. ↑,
58', Isherwood T. 🟨,
62', 1 - 3, Flataker E. ⚽, Celina B. (A),
69', Ayari T. ↓, Kouame A. ↑,
69', Nissen F. ↓, Ali A. ↑,
74', Alsalkhadi M. ↓, Thern S. ↑,
82', 2 - 3, Flataker E. ⚽, Besirovic D. (A),
86', Johansson C. ↓, Antonsson M. ↑,
86', Liimatta O. ↓, Kujundzic A. ↑,
87', Besirovic D. 🟨,
90+6', Antonsen K. 🟨,
90+6', Celina B. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Superettan).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AIK won 5.

AIK is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Värnamo has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, AIK is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in AIK: Andersson V. (Injury) Ellingsen M. (Leg Injury) Guidetti J. (Injury) Helm A. (Injury) Hove J. (Calf Injury) Nissen F. (Injury) Redkin A. (Knee Injury) Saletros A. (Injury) Thychosen M. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, AIK won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 15:7. (average 1.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, AIK won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:3. (average 2.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AIK Fotboll
Swedish Allsvenskan
28.09.25	AIK - GAIS	1:1 ✺
22.09.25	Norrköping - AIK	3:1 ✺
15.09.25	AIK - Brommapojkarna	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	AIK - Sirius	2:1 ✺
24.08.25	Degerfors - AIK	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TLWWW
- IFK Värnamo
Swedish Allsvenskan
28.09.25	Malmö - Värnamo	3:2 ✺
22.09.25	Värnamo - Halmstad	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	Öster - Värnamo	4:3 ✺
30.08.25	IFK Göteborg - Värnamo	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Värnamo - Häcken	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Allsvenskan
24.04.25	Värnamo - AIK	1:2
Svenska Cupen
28.02.25	AIK - Värnamo	2:0
Swedish Allsvenskan
31.08.24	Värnamo - AIK	0:1
24.04.24	AIK - Värnamo	2:0
12.11.23	AIK - Värnamo	3:1
24.04.23	Värnamo - AIK	1:0
14.08.22	AIK - Värnamo	2:2

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