Match Info

USL League One

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Lancaster Municipal Stadium (Lancaster, CA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Mexico	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	AV Alta		Naples

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.90	3.40	3.25
	1.98	3.25	3.2
	2.08	3.34	3.36
	2.09	3.42	3.36	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.3
	2.03	3.64	3.33	Watch
	1.99	3.3	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.88)	3.38 ↓ (3.55)	3.29 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AV Alta
45.2%

Draw
27%

Naples
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.6%

25.2%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

22.3%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AV Alta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Naples has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AV Alta than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Naples than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

AV Alta - Naples Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Smith D. (G) 12. Relerford N. 4. Pajaro M. 44. Pehlivanov K. 16. Ceja E. 6. Lay O. 21. Villalobos J. (C) 24. Higareda S. 99. Bahena Jr C. 18. Aoumaich A. 9. Acuna J.	1. Delgado L. (G) 20. Yearwood J. 5. Mastrantonio L. 4. Uderitz H. 3. Cisneros J. 6. Ciss O. 11. Garcia C. 23. Mesias A. 21. Torrellas M. 14. O'Connor K. 9. Miglietti G.
Substitutes
5. Alassane M. 19. Anderson C. 20. Antwi G. 30. Gonzalez M. (G) 10. Ibarra M. 2. Ortiz C. 52. Ramos S. 23. Thomas R. 15. Winum M.	19. Arevalo W. 16. Bulai-Tudor A. 10. Ferrin A. 99. Grant J. (G) 45. Likulia N. 8. Osorio J. 31. Rose T.
Coaches
Kleiban B.	Poland M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', Mesias A. 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Acuna J. ⚽, Higareda S. (A),
45+2', Relerford N. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Aoumaich A. ↓, Alassane M. ↑,
46', Higareda S. ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,
59', Acuna J. ↓, Ibarra M. ↑,
59', Ciss O. ↓, Likulia N. ↑,
63', Miglietti G. ↓, Ferrin A. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Ferrin A. ⚽, Garcia C. (A),
70', Bahena Jr C. ↓, Antwi G. ↑,
70', Lay O. ↓, Anderson C. ↑,
77', Cisneros J. ↓, Osorio J. ↑,
77', Garcia C. ↓, Arevalo W. ↑,
78', Ceja E. ↓, Ramos S. ↑,
86', Mesias A. ↓, Bulai-Tudor A. ↑,
88', Osorio J. 🟨,
90+4', Alassane M. 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 2, Likulia N. ⚽, Yearwood J. (A),
90+6', Likulia N. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 14).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Alta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Naples has had a series of away games.

Alta will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Alta won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1.5:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Alta won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	FC Naples	29	11	4	14	34:44	-10	37
13	AV Alta	29	8	8	13	35:42	-7	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AV Alta FC
USL League One
15.08.26	New York Cosmos - AV Alta	1:0 ✺
08.08.26	AV Alta - Fort Wayne	3:0 ✺
05.08.26	Naples - AV Alta	2:1 ✺
01.08.26	Richmond Kickers - AV Alta	3:2 ✺
25.07.26	AV Alta - Westchester SC	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWLLT
- FC Naples
USL League One
15.08.26	Westchester SC - Naples	3:2 ✺
05.08.26	Naples - AV Alta	2:1 ✺
25.07.26	Forward Madison - Naples	3:1 ✺
USL Cup
11.07.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Naples	2:0 ✺
USL League One
08.07.26	New York Cosmos - Naples	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
05.08.26	Naples - AV Alta	2:1
27.09.25	Naples - AV Alta	4:0
19.07.25	AV Alta - Naples	1:1
28.06.25	AV Alta - Naples	4:1

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