Match Info

USL League One

Date: 25 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Breese Stevens Field (Madison, WI)


	Forward Madison		Naples

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.60	3.70	4.50
	1.6	3.75	4.55
	1.58	3.93	4.89
	1.61	4.07	4.91	Watch
	1.54	3.85	4.75
	1.55	3.88	5.02	Watch
	1.59	3.7	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.6)	3.84 ↑ (3.7)	4.73 ↑ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Forward Madison
57.3%

Draw
23.6%

Naples
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

24.2%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.2%

21.7%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Forward Madison has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Naples has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forward Madison than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naples than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Forward Madison - Naples Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Harms J. (G) 23. Munjoma E. 20. Carmichael K. 33. Toure K. (C) 4. McCamy C. 6. Kanyane G. 21. Karamoko H. 16. Castro J. 8. Segbers M. 7. Bolma J. 9. Carmichael R.	1. Delgado L. (C) 20. Yearwood J. 5. Mastrantonio L. 31. Rose T. 3. Cisneros J. 6. Ciss O. 14. O'Connor K. 23. Mesias A. 21. Torrellas M. 7. Gray T. 9. Miglietti G.
Substitutes
3. Edwards A. 99. Flores K. (G) 24. Forbes J. 14. Gyamfi S. 28. Hildal J. 19. Manske T. (G) 11. Ngoubou C. 5. Shannon J. 12. Torres R.	19. Arevalo W. 16. Bulai-Tudor A. 30. Cerro I. 12. Gay H. 17. Halterman T. (G) 8. Osorio J. 2. Strumeier J. 22. Yoder J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Karamoko H. ⚽, Kanyane G. (A),
42', Toure K. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
62', Segbers M. ↓, Edwards A. ↑,
62', Karamoko H. ↓, Torres R. ↑,
70', Edwards A. 🟨,
73', Torrellas M. ↓, Cerro I. ↑,
74', 2 - 0, Bolma J. ⚽,
74', Bolma J. ↓, Ngoubou C. ↑,
79', Torres R. 🟨,
80', 2 - 1, Mesias A. (Penalty Awarded),
81', Toure K. ↓, Shannon J. ↑,
81', Rose T. ↓, Yoder J. ↑,
84', Kanyane G. ↓, Forbes J. ↑,
90+2', Gray T. ↓, Gay H. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 1, Carmichael R. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 14).

Forward Madison has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Naples has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Forward Madison may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Forward Madison has had a series of home games.

Recently, Naples has had a series of away games.

In this match, Forward Madison is the team to beat.

We predict that Forward Madison will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Forward Madison won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.3:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Forward Madison won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Forward Madison ✔	29	15	7	7	50:27	23	52
9	FC Naples	29	11	4	14	34:44	-10	37

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Forward Madison
USL League One
15.07.26	Forward Madison - Richmond Kickers	4:0 ✺
USL Cup
11.07.26	Forward Madison - Union Omaha	4:3 ✺
USL League One
01.07.26	Spokane Velocity - Forward Madison	0:1 ✺
20.06.26	Forward Madison - New York Cosmos	3:1 ✺
17.06.26	Forward Madison - Fort Wayne	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 WWWWT
- FC Naples
USL Cup
11.07.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Naples	2:0 ✺
USL League One
08.07.26	New York Cosmos - Naples	1:0 ✺
03.07.26	Naples - Portland Hearts of Pine	2:3 ✺
20.06.26	Chattanooga Red Wolves - Naples	1:0 ✺
13.06.26	Charlotte Independence - Naples	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
28.03.26	Naples - Forward Madison	0:1
16.08.25	Forward Madison - Naples	0:0
15.03.25	Naples - Forward Madison	2:0

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