Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 17

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio do CD das Aves (Vila das Aves)

Referee: Fonseca M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Angola	Z Sports 1
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	Gol TV Play Latinoamerica


	AVS		Moreirense

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.2	2.05	Watch
	3.5	3.25	2.05
	3.45	3.2	2.12	Watch
	3.65	3.23	2.13	Watch
	3.6	3	2.1
	3.72	3.31	2.17	Watch
	3.66	3.1	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.6 ↑ (3.05)	3.18 ↓ (3.21)	2.11 ↓ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AVS
26.1%

Draw
29.4%

Moreirense
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

30.2%

37.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

30.4%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AVS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that AVS's form might have worsened.

Moreirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Moreirense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AVS than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AVS, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Moreirense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	33.3%	58.3%

AVS - Moreirense Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. AVS will win (votes: 2 - 8.3%). Moreirense will win (votes: 14 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Moreirense: 38.6% – 78%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Moreirense (votes: 5 - 50%). Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Moreirense (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Moreirense (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Simao (G) 26. Ponck 33. Santos A. 42. Devenish C. 2. Spencer D. 8. Pedro Lima 15. Grau J. (C) 12. Rivas L. 11. Akinsola T. 7. Tomane 21. Neiva G.	22. Caio (G) 76. Pinto D. 26. Maracas 66. Batista G. 17. Martinez A. 21. Rodri 11. Alanzinho 8. Stjepanovic M. 2. Travassos 95. Guilherme Schettine (C) 10. Kiko Bondoso
Substitutes
6. Assuncao G. 9. Escobar J. 99. Joao Goncalves (G) 24. Kiki 17. Lourenco B. 23. Mendonca G. 18. Nene 3. Paulo Vitor 14. Perea O.	25. Assis A. 20. Bernardo 13. Ferreira A. (G) 30. Gower J. 27. Kiko 78. Landerson 44. Marcelo 9. Semedo L. 7. Teguia C.
Coaches
Henriques J.	Costa V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Travassos ⚽,
23', Santos A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Neiva G. ↓, Perea O. ↑,
46', Devenish C. 🟨,
50', 0 - 2, Guilherme Schettine ⚽, Rodri (A),
56', Santos A. ↓, Assuncao G. ↑,
56', Grau J. ↓, Mendonca G. ↑,
56', Pedro Lima ↓, Escobar J. ↑,
60', Pinto D. 🟨,
60', Tomane 🟨,
64', Rodri ↓, Bernardo ↑,
70', Tomane ↓, Nene ↑,
74', Kiko Bondoso ↓, Teguia C. ↑,
75', Guilherme Schettine ↓, Semedo L. ↑,
75', Pinto D. ↓, Landerson ↑,
78', Caio 🟨,
90+1', Alanzinho ↓, Gower J. ↑,
90+2', Landerson 🟨,
90+2', Assuncao G. 🟨,
90+4', Nene 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 8).

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Moreirense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Moreirense will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in AVS: Duarte D. (Inactive) Molina G. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Moreirense: Jorquera Romero J. (Ankle Injury) Yan Maranhao (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in AVS: Galletto T. (Injury)

There are questionable in Moreirense: Sousa V. (Leg Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, AVS won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, AVS won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Outrights of Liga Portugal for now

Moreirense: 0.37%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8:14	-6	8

Last Results with these Odds

AVS - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 31.83%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AVS Futebol SAD
Liga Portugal
29.12.25	Porto - AVS	2:0 ✺
21.12.25	AVS - Nacional	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - AVS	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
13.12.25	Sporting Lisbon - AVS	6:0 ✺
06.12.25	AVS - Rio Ave	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LTWLL
- Moreirense FC
Liga Portugal
20.12.25	Estrela da Amadora - Moreirense	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Moreirense - Benfica	0:4 ✺
07.12.25	Estoril Praia - Moreirense	3:3 ✺
29.11.25	Moreirense - Famalicão	2:2 ✺
09.11.25	Braga - Moreirense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
17.05.25	AVS - Moreirense	0:3
04.01.25	Moreirense - AVS	1:1

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