Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 7

Date: 9 October 2023, Monday

Location: Estádio do CD das Aves (Vila das Aves)

Referee: Malheiro H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	AVS		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.6	6.5
	1.5	3.7	5.75	Watch
	1.53	3.75	6.5	Watch
	1.54	4.05	7.1
	1.5	3.7	6
	1.5	3.88	6.45
	1.52	3.7	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.76)	3.77 ↑ (3.4)	6.33 ↑ (4.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AVS
61%

Draw
24.5%

Penafiel
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.7%

26.8%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

26%

20.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AVS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in AVS's performance.

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Penafiel might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AVS than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with AVS that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Penafiel could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

AVS - Penafiel Predictions

Users Predictions: AVS will win (64 of 64 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
88. Trigueira P. (G) 98. Ze Ricardo 41. Correia A. 40. Clayton 12. Farias E. 47. Lucca J. 8. Bernardo 17. John Mercado 7. Silva L. (C) 26. Lopes V. 18. Nene	1. Silva P. (G) 68. Maga 44. Pereira R. 4. Miguel J. 15. Silva J. 35. Cardoso F. 6. Teixeira L. (C) 75. Ribeiro R. 8. Reko 30. Silva A. 7. Firmino H.
Substitutes
20. Amorim J. 77. Carlos Daniel 25. Dias R. 10. Dioh I. 23. Mendonca G. 6. Pacheco F. 9. Sangare B. 93. Simao (G) 3. Thiago Freitas	31. Balde M. (G) 21. Batista D. 26. Brito D. 27. Freitas R. 17. Gabriel Barbosa (Robinho) 5. Pereira B. 13. Pinheiro Edu 10. Silva J. 99. Vieira P.
Coaches
Costa J.	Cristovao H.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)).

AVS is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Penafiel is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

AVS could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match AVS is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's AVS to win the game is with odds 1.59.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AVS Futebol SAD
Portuguese Liga 2
01.10.23	Académico de Viseu - AVS	1:2 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
26.09.23	AVS - Arouca	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.09.23	Louletano - AVS	0:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
16.09.23	AVS - Vilaverdense	2:0 ✺
02.09.23	Leiria - AVS	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WLWWW
- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
02.10.23	Penafiel - Nacional	1:4 ✺
Taça de Portugal
24.09.23	Valadares Gaia - Penafiel	1:2 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
16.09.23	Santa Clara - Penafiel	0:0 ✺
02.09.23	Penafiel - Académico de Viseu	0:0 ✺
27.08.23	Oliveirense - Penafiel	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWTTL

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