Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 18

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio do CD das Aves (Vila das Aves)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV6
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine


	AVS		Arouca

	1	X	2
	2.57	3	2.75	Watch
	2.58	3.05	2.82	Watch
	2.71	3.11	2.76	Watch
	2.63	2.9	2.75
	2.73	3.12	2.91	Watch
	2.6	3.1	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↓ (3.09)	3.05 ↓ (3.27)	2.8 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AVS
35.6%

Draw
30.8%

Arouca
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

28.2%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.2%

27.9%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AVS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in AVS's performance.

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arouca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AVS than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with AVS that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arouca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.2%	35.3%	23.5%

AVS - Arouca Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. AVS will win (votes: 7 - 41.2%). Arouca will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AVS: 17.8% – 64.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Arouca (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - AVS (1.87) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. AVS (votes: 1 - 20%). Arouca (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Adriel (G) 42. Devenish C. 35. Semedo R. 26. Ponck 24. Kiki (C) 70. Roni 23. Mendonca G. 11. Akinsola T. 8. Pedro Lima 14. Perea O. 7. Tomane	12. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio (C) 4. Rocha M. 25. Kuipers B. 15. Sanchez J. 22. van Ee E. 14. Lee H. 19. Trezza A. 21. Fukui T. 7. Djouahra N. 17. Barbero I.
Substitutes
27. Algobia A. 20. Duarte D. 15. Grau J. 21. Neiva G. 18. Nene 12. Rivas L. 33. Santos A. 2. Spencer D. 88. Trigueira (G)	44. Dante A. 46. Flores M. 3. Fontan J. 10. Gozalbez P. 77. Jansonas R. 24. Mansilla B. 6. Monteiro D. 11. Puche 1. Valido J. (G)
Coaches
Henriques J.	Seabra V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', Devenish C. 🟥,
10', van Ee E. 🟨,
11', Mendonca G. 🟨,
38', Sanchez J. 🟨,
42', 0 - 1, Barbero I. ⚽, Fukui T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kuipers B. ↓, Dante A. ↑,
53', Perea O. ↓, Duarte D. ↑,
58', Barbero I. 🟨,
67', Lee H. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
72', Barbero I. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
72', Roni ↓, Algobia A. ↑,
72', Fukui T. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
72', Tomane ↓, Nene ↑,
79', Rocha M. 🟨,
80', Pedro Lima ↓, Grau J. ↑,
80', Mendonca G. ↓, Neiva G. ↑,
83', Grau J. 🟨,
84', Djouahra N. ↓, Puche ↑,
89', De Arruabarrena I. 🟨,
90+3', Semedo R. 🟨,
90+6', Flores M. 🟨,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).

AVS is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Arouca has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in AVS: Duarte D. (Inactive) Galletto T. (Coach's decision) Molina G. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Arouca: Flores M. (Knee Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, AVS won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, AVS won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10:7	3	11

Last Results with these Odds

AVS - the odds 3.09 are the expected chance of winning is 29.86%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AVS Futebol SAD
Liga Portugal
03.01.26	AVS - Moreirense	0:2 ✺
29.12.25	Porto - AVS	2:0 ✺
21.12.25	AVS - Nacional	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - AVS	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
13.12.25	Sporting Lisbon - AVS	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LLTWL
- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
03.01.26	Tondela - Arouca	3:1 ✺
28.12.25	Arouca - Gil Vicente	2:2 ✺
21.12.25	Santa Clara - Arouca	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Arouca - Alverca	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Estrela da Amadora - Arouca	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
09.08.25	Arouca - AVS	3:1
08.03.25	AVS - Arouca	0:1
05.10.24	Arouca - AVS	1:1
Portuguese League Cup
26.09.23	AVS - Arouca	1:2

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