The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Aalesunds 42.4%
Draw 24.9%
Sarpsborg 08 32.7%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
37.5%
25%
37.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
37.2%
25.2%
37.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Aalesunds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)
Sarpsborg 08 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aalesunds than the current prediction. (-5.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aalesunds that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarpsborg 08 than the current prediction. (+5.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sarpsborg 08 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
28.6%
42.9%
28.6%
Aalesunds - Sarpsborg 08 Predictions
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Aalesunds will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Sarpsborg will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).
1. Podlech L. (G) 7. Nesso K. 22. Engqvist E. 28. Mbacke D. 3. Gudmundsson O. 14. Charles U. 21. Christensen M. (C) 18. Hagen E. 15. Osenbroch E. 8. Skotheim I. 27. Reed M.
87. Oy L. (G) 32. Wichne E. 4. Utvik B. (C) 24. Rosted S. 20. Reinhardsen P. 10. Sorli S. 8. Christiansen S. 77. Skarsem O. 17. Williams N. 33. Nibe A. 11. Karlsbakk D.
Substitutes
45. Aukland P. 19. Kartum S. 10. Kristensen M. 26. Larsen T. (G) 38. Leikanger T. 17. Myrlid E. 9. Ngongo P. 16. Orsahl J. 25. Syversen U.
7. Camil Mmaee 18. Gueye B. 22. Halvorsen V. E. 21. Hiim A. 5. Hoyland L. 1. Larsen J. (G) 2. Lode M. 12. Niyukuri C. 6. Sher A.
Coaches
Rekdal K.
Sel E.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Wichne E. ⚽, Christiansen S. (A),
9', Utvik B. 🟨,
40', Rosted S. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
51', 0 - 2, Sorli S. ⚽, Williams N. (A),
54', 0 - 3, Williams N. ⚽,
62', Skotheim I. ↓, Myrlid E. ↑,
62', Osenbroch E. ↓, Kartum S. ↑,
65', 0 - 4, Skarsem O. (Penalty Awarded),
68', Mbacke D. ↓, Aukland P. ↑,
70', 1 - 4, Hagen E. ⚽, Reed M. (A),
71', Skarsem O. ↓, Sher A. ↑,
71', Rosted S. ↓, Lode M. ↑,
73', Nibe A. ↓, Halvorsen V. E. ↑,
74', 2 - 4, Hagen E. ⚽, Reed M. (A),
78', Wichne E. ↓, Hiim A. ↑,
78', Williams N. ↓, Niyukuri C. ↑,
80', Gudmundsson O. 🟨,
83', Reed M. ↓, Ngongo P. ↑,
83', Aukland P. ↓, Orsahl J. ↑,
90+4', Karlsbakk D. ↓, Persson L. ↑,
Preview
Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 14th in the Eliteserien (Relegation) and 9th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aalesunds won 2.
Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.
Aalesunds could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Recently, Aalesunds has faced a series of away games on the road.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
Confirmed absences for Aalesunds: Andresen M.
(Yellow Cards)
Djantou I.
(Inactive)
Hammer H.
(Injury)
Haram S.
(Elbow Injury)
Kjelsen A.
(Injury)
Kristensen M.
(Injury)
Ngongo P.
(Surgery)
Seehusen J.
(Injury).
Confirmed absences for Sarpsborg: Carstensen F.
(Injury)
Opoku M.
(Ankle Injury).
In the last 16 head-to-head meetings, Aalesunds has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 20:30 (averaging 1.3:1.9 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Aalesunds against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with 12:14 goals (averaging 1.5:1.8 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
7
Sarpsborg 08
24
8
7
9
30:35
-5
31
14
Aalesund
24
5
9
10
40:53
-13
24
Last Results with these Odds
Aalesunds - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 37.48%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.
Norway
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Podlech L. (G) 
Nesso K. 
Engqvist E. 
Mbacke D. 
Gudmundsson O. 
Charles U. 
Christensen M. (C) 
Camil Mmaee 
Niyukuri C. 
Sher A. 
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