Match Info

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday


	Aalesunds		Sarpsborg 08

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.7	2.45	Watch
	2.40	3.75	2.55
	2.55	3.6	2.55
	2.6	3.73	2.55
	2.52	3.77	2.52	Watch
	2.5	3.65	2.5
	2.58	3.78	2.54
	2.46	3.65	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↓ (2.52)	3.7 ↓ (3.77)	2.51 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Aalesunds
37.4%

Draw
25.3%

Sarpsborg 08
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

25%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

25.2%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aalesunds has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Sarpsborg 08 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aalesunds than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarpsborg 08 than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Aalesunds - Sarpsborg 08 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Preview

A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 14th in the Eliteserien (Relegation) and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aalesunds won 2.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Sarpsborg may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Aalesunds has faced a series of away games on the road.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 16 head-to-head meetings, Aalesunds has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 20:30 (averaging 1.3:1.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Aalesunds against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with 12:14 goals (averaging 1.5:1.8 per game).

Outrights of Norwegian Eliteserien for now

Sarpsborg 08: 0.11%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Sarpsborg 08	21	6	7	8	24:29	-5	25
14	Aalesund	21	4	9	8	33:46	-13	21

Last Results with these Odds

Aalesunds - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 37.48%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aalesunds FK
Norwegian Eliteserien
19.09.26	Molde - Aalesunds	1:2 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
16.09.26	Førde - Aalesunds	3:4 ET ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
13.09.26	KFUM-Kameratene Oslo - Aalesunds	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Aalesunds - Start	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	Viking Stavanger - Aalesunds	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WWLWL
- Sarpsborg 08
Norwegian NM Cup
30.09.26	Follo - Sarpsborg 08	0:2 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
18.09.26	Sarpsborg 08 - KFUM-Kameratene Oslo	1:3 ✺
13.09.26	Fredrikstad - Sarpsborg 08	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Sarpsborg 08 - Vålerenga	2:2 ✺
30.08.26	Tromsø - Sarpsborg 08	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Eliteserien
22.10.23	Aalesunds - Sarpsborg 08	3:2
29.05.23	Sarpsborg 08 - Aalesunds	3:1
11.09.22	Aalesunds - Sarpsborg 08	1:3
22.05.22	Sarpsborg 08 - Aalesunds	1:2
13.09.20	Aalesunds - Sarpsborg 08	0:1
02.08.20	Sarpsborg 08 - Aalesunds	4:0
19.11.17	Sarpsborg 08 - Aalesunds	1:0

Aalesunds - Sarpsborg 08: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide