Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 10

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra (Coimbra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Académica Coimbra		Belenenses

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.25	3
	2.25	3.32	3.22
	2.17	3.45	3.11	Watch
	2.15	3	3.1
	2.16	3.14	3.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.26)	3.23 ↑ (3.09)	3.11 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Académica Coimbra
42.3%

Draw
28.3%

Belenenses
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

29.6%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

30.8%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Académica Coimbra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Belenenses has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Académica Coimbra than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Académica Coimbra - Belenenses Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Alves C. (G) 2. Baixinho M. 28. Cascavel 18. Cuba 11. Farias E. 15. Kaka 17. Marcos Paulo 6. Montez A. 5. Silva L. (C) 93. Souza B. 3. Teixeira R.	99. Oliveira G. (G) 27. Barros E. 66. Cesinha 11. Duda 17. Horta Leitao D. 2. Machado J. 21. Morgado T. (C) 20. Paulo D. 39. Pinto A. 9. Souza E. 19. Valente A.
Substitutes
9. Barbosa N. 21. Candeias D. 8. Jesus P. 23. Karseladze J. 1. Macedo N. (G) 4. Silva G. 20. Sinisterra J. 7. Tiago Andre 14. Triana C.	14. Afonso A. 22. Bandarra M. 23. Bruninho 13. Cuca 7. Eduardo W. 89. Gastao J. 15. Lucas J. 28. Pinto G. (G) 5. Teixeira J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Cascavel ⚽,
34', Paulo D. 🟨,
45+4', Pinto A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
60', Duda ↓, Bruninho ↑,
62', Silva L. 🟨,
63', Farias E. 🟨,
70', 2 - 0, Souza B. ⚽, Cascavel (A),
72', Cuba ↓, Triana C. ↑,
72', Machado J. ↓, Bandarra M. ↑,
72', Morgado T. ↓, Gastao J. ↑,
73', 🟨,
80', Cascavel ↓, Candeias D. ↑,
80', Souza B. ↓, Jesus P. ↑,
85', Teixeira R. 🟨,
88', Afonso A. 🟨,
90', Sinisterra J. ↓, Silva G. ↑,
90+1', 🟨,
90+6', 2 - 1, Bruninho ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Académica won 2.

Académica has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Belenenses is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Belenenses may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Académica will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Académica won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Académica won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Académica Coimbra - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 40.45%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Académica Coimbra
Portuguese Liga 3
12.04.26	Académica Coimbra - Amarante	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
29.03.26	Amarante - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Trofense - Académica Coimbra	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	Académica Coimbra - Mafra	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TLTWW
- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
11.04.26	Belenenses - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:0 ✺
03.04.26	Trofense - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Mafra - Belenenses	1:4 ✺
14.03.26	Belenenses - Varzim	3:2 ✺
08.03.26	União de Santarém - Belenenses	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
21.02.26	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	3:2
14.12.25	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	1:1
13.09.25	Académica Coimbra - Belenenses	4:1
25.01.25	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	0:0
27.10.24	Académica Coimbra - Belenenses	1:0
18.12.22	Académica Coimbra - Belenenses	1:1
20.08.22	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	2:0

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