Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 8

Date: 3 April 2026, Friday

Location: Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense (Trofa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Trofense		Belenenses

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.15	1.98
	3.53	3.43	2.1
	3.48	3.51	2.01	Watch
	3.4	3.1	1.95
	3.5	3.5	2.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.46 ↑ (3.06)	3.34 ↑ (2.94)	2.01 ↓ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trofense
26.6%

Draw
27.6%

Belenenses
45.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

31.2%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

31.1%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trofense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Belenenses's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Belenenses, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Trofense - Belenenses Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Trofense will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Belenenses will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Silva N. (G) 2. Oliveira J. 23. Ribeiro Gomes D. M. 4. Basto H. 5. Cunha G. 18. Diagne O. 78. Ruca 8. Reko Silva 10. Feliz 19. Diarra M. 89. Nuninho	99. Oliveira G. (G) 2. Machado J. 39. Pinto A. 66. Cesinha 27. Barros E. 20. Paulo D. 14. Afonso A. 21. Morgado T. 17. Horta Leitao D. 9. Souza E. 11. Duda
Substitutes
14. Assis Cardoso R. H. 6. Daniel J. 9. Hachadi K. 29. Joel 26. Lobo G. 79. Lopes L. 44. Saldanha F. 12. Teopisto (G) 30. Welisson	13. Cuca 31. David Rebelo 89. Gastao J. 15. Lucas J. 28. Pinto G. (G) 10. Sambu M. 5. Teixeira J. 19. Valente A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', Feliz 🟨,
24', 0 - 1, Afonso A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Duda ↓, Sambu M. ↑,
46', Oliveira J. ↓, Lopes L. ↑,
66', Afonso A. ↓, Valente A. ↑,
72', Paulo D. 🟨,
76', Morgado T. 🟨,
78', Souza E. ↓, Gastao J. ↑,
83', Barros E. 🟨,
85', Feliz ↓, Joel ↑,
85', Reko Silva ↓, Daniel J. ↑,
85', Diagne O. ↓, Lobo G. ↑,
90', Morgado T. ↓, Teixeira J. ↑,
90', Horta Leitao D. ↓, Eduardo W. ↑,

Preview

Recent form of Trofense has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Belenenses is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Trofense won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Trofense
Portuguese Liga 3
22.03.26	Trofense - Académica Coimbra	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Trofense	1:2 ✺
08.03.26	Amarante - Trofense	1:0 ✺
27.02.26	Trofense - Mafra	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Varzim - Trofense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWLTL
- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
22.03.26	Mafra - Belenenses	1:4 ✺
14.03.26	Belenenses - Varzim	3:2 ✺
08.03.26	União de Santarém - Belenenses	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Belenenses - Amarante	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
07.02.26	Belenenses - Trofense	0:0
Taça de Portugal
22.09.24	Belenenses - Trofense	3:0

Trofense - Belenenses: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide