Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 4

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra (Coimbra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Académica Coimbra		União de Santarém

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.65	5.15
	1.59	3.87	5.92
	1.69	3.68	4.85	Watch
	1.57	3.5	5
	1.62	3.86	5.21
	1.7	3.45	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.7)	3.67 ↑ (3.4)	5.12 ↑ (4.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Académica Coimbra
56.9%

Draw
25.1%

União de Santarém
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

26.8%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.4%

28.7%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Académica Coimbra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

União de Santarém has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Académica Coimbra than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for União de Santarém than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Académica Coimbra - União de Santarém Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Alves C. (G) 21. Candeias D. 18. Cuba 11. Farias E. 15. Kaka 17. Marcos Paulo 6. Montez A. 4. Silva G. 5. Silva L. (C) 93. Souza B. 3. Teixeira R.	78. Pedro Teixeira (G) 17. Aguas G. 11. Goncalves E. F. 16. Grilo M. (C) 3. Joao Ricardo 58. Monteiro D. 6. Nanco I. 33. Rodrigues M. 14. Simoes J. 20. Ventura B. 28. Vinhas D.
Substitutes
2. Baixinho M. 9. Barbosa N. 28. Cascavel 8. Jesus P. 1. Macedo N. (G) 20. Sinisterra J. 7. Tiago Andre 14. Triana C. 19. Xavier	84. Ayiah E. 13. Bura 22. Hidalgo N. (G) 90. Koume S. 24. Medalli N. 4. Pereira P. 5. Rodeia M. 7. Teixeira G. 29. Teixeira R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Marcos Paulo ⚽, Kaka (A),
27', Silva L. ↓, Sinisterra J. ↑,
31', 2 - 0, Souza B. ⚽, Teixeira R. (A),
34', Rodrigues M. ↓, Rodeia M. ↑,
36', Sinisterra J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', 3 - 0, Cuba ⚽,
60', Monteiro D. ↓, Koume S. ↑,
62', Sinisterra J. ↓, Jesus P. ↑,
68', Goncalves E. F. ↓, Ayiah E. ↑,
68', Cuba ↓, Cascavel ↑,
70', Candeias D. ↓, Triana C. ↑,
78', Simoes J. ↓, Bura ↑,
78', Grilo M. ↓, Teixeira G. ↑,
81', 3 - 1, Ayiah E. ⚽,
83', Marcos Paulo ↓, Baixinho M. ↑,
87', Souza B. ↓, Xavier ↑,
90', Silva G. 🟨,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 5 and 7)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Académica won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Académica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Académica is considered a favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Académica won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Académica won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Académica Coimbra
Portuguese Liga 3
21.02.26	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	3:2 ✺
06.02.26	Académica Coimbra - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Caldas - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Académica Coimbra - Amora	2:0 ✺
14.01.26	Covilhã - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLWT
- União de Santarém
Portuguese Liga 3
21.02.26	União de Santarém - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Trofense - União de Santarém	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	União de Santarém - Belenenses	2:1 ✺
16.01.26	Mafra - União de Santarém	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	União de Santarém - Atlético CP	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.4 LWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
29.11.25	União de Santarém - Académica Coimbra	1:1
17.08.25	Académica Coimbra - União de Santarém	1:0
04.05.25	Académica Coimbra - União de Santarém	0:4
15.02.25	União de Santarém - Académica Coimbra	0:0
08.12.24	União de Santarém - Académica Coimbra	0:3
23.08.24	Académica Coimbra - União de Santarém	1:0

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