Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 6 April 2023, Thursday

Location: Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado (Valencia)

Referee: Espinoza M. (Per)


	Academia Puerto Cabello		Deportes Tolima

	1	X	2
	2.6	3	3	Watch
	2.6	3	2.8
	2.75	3	2.7
	2.64	3.01	3
	2.5	2.9	2.8
	2.54	3.15	2.86	Watch
	2.5	3	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↓ (3.29)	3.01 ↓ (3.25)	2.86 ↑ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Academia Puerto Cabello
36.1%

Draw
31.1%

Deportes Tolima
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

28.4%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.4%

28%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Academia Puerto Cabello has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Academia Puerto Cabello's performance.

Deportes Tolima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportes Tolima might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Academia Puerto Cabello than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Academia Puerto Cabello that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportes Tolima could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	12.5%	37.5%

Academia Puerto Cabello - Deportes Tolima Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Puerto Cabello will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Deportes Tolima will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Puerto Cabello: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Puerto Cabello in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Deportes Tolima is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Puerto Cabello could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Academia Puerto Cabello
Venezuelan Primera Division
01.04.23	Academia Puerto Cabello - Deportivo La Guaira	1:0 ✺
17.03.23	Mineros de Guayana - Academia Puerto Cabello	0:3 ✺
12.03.23	Carabobo - Academia Puerto Cabello	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.03.23	Caracas - Academia Puerto Cabello	0:1 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
03.03.23	Academia Puerto Cabello - Metropolitanos	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 WWWWW
- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
01.04.23	Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima	1:1 ✺
29.03.23	Deportes Tolima - Millonarios	1:1 ✺
25.03.23	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Huila	2:1 ✺
20.03.23	Atlético Bucaramanga - Deportes Tolima	1:1 ✺
14.03.23	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo La Equidad	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TTWTW

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