Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 3

Date: 27 January 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Colombia	20:30	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	19:30	Fanatiz
Usa	20:30	Fanatiz


	Independiente Medellín		Deportes Tolima

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.88	3.7	Watch
	2.1	3	3.4
	2.12	2.98	3.7	Watch
	2.29	2.92	3.76
	2.21	3	3.59	Watch
	2.25	2.8	3.4
	2.26	2.81	3.64	Watch
	2.25	2.83	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (1.93)	2.9 ↓ (3.3)	3.61 ↓ (3.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Independiente Medellín
42%

Draw
32.1%

Deportes Tolima
25.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

48.1%

28.1%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.9%

27.4%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente Medellín's form might have worsened.

Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Deportes Tolima will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ichazo S. (C) 2. Chaverra L. 4. Mantilla K. 16. Loboa H. 24. Ortiz J. 7. Berrio L. 26. Mena Perea E. 6. Moreno D. 13. Chaverra F. 20. Montano J. 19. Fydriszewski F.	1. Neto Volpi (G) 26. Hurtado Torres Y. D. 3. Angulo J. 2. Angulo A. 20. Hernandez J. 6. Trujillo C. 15. Nieto J. (C) 18. Florez K. 24. Parra Osorio A. 28. Lopez E. 10. Torres Patino J. P.
Substitutes
3. Balanta M. 10. Catano D. 25. Chaux E. (G) 28. Davila A. 9. Larrosa E. 17. Mancilla G. 23. Palacios M. 8. Serna A. 18. Viveros J.	17. Arrieta C. 23. Balanta Carabali G. J. (G) 7. Gonzalez J. 32. Guzman S. 11. Lencina G. 27. Martinez M. 31. Moreno Y. 14. Ricardo E. 8. Valencia E.
Coaches
Restrepo A.	Gonzalez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
21', 1 - 0, Ortiz J. ⚽, Chaverra L. (A),
26', 1 - 1, Parra Osorio A. ⚽,
31', 1 - 2, Parra Osorio A. ⚽,
35', Hurtado Torres Y. D. 🟥,
39', Torres Patino J. P. ↓, Arrieta C. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Chaverra L. ↓, Mancilla G. ↑,
46', Florez K. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
46', Nieto J. ↓, Ricardo E. ↑,
58', Ricardo E. 🟥,
60', Loboa H. ↓, Larrosa E. ↑,
61', Parra Osorio A. ↓, Guzman S. ↑,
62', Mantilla K. 🟨,
67', Moreno D. 🟨,
68', Berrio L. ↓, Catano D. ↑,
69', 2 - 2, Larrosa E. ⚽, Chaverra F. (A),
78', Mantilla K. ↓, Davila A. ↑,
78', Catano D. ↓, Serna A. ↑,
87', Lopez E. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 3.

Ind Medellín is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Deportes Tolima's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ind Medellín may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ind Medellín might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:22. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ind Medellín won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 0.9:1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Ind. Medellin	15	7	2	6	22:21	1	23
11	Deportes Tolima	16	5	5	6	18:19	-1	20

Outrights of Colombian Primera A for now

Ind. Medellin: 8.23% Deportes Tolima: 4.33%

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente Medellín - the odds 1.93 are the expected chance of winning is 48.05%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
24.01.26	Deportivo Cali - Independiente Medellín	3:1 ✺
18.01.26	Deportivo Pasto - Independiente Medellín	1:0 ✺
Colombian Copa
17.12.25	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Medellín	0:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
08.12.25	Independiente Medellín - Junior Barranquilla	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLLTW
- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
23.01.26	Deportes Tolima - Alianza Valledupar	2:0 ✺
18.01.26	Junior Barranquilla - Deportes Tolima	0:2 ✺
16.12.25	Deportes Tolima - Junior Barranquilla	0:1 ✺
12.12.25	Junior Barranquilla - Deportes Tolima	3:0 ✺
08.12.25	Deportes Tolima - Fortaleza CEIF	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
27.09.25	Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellín	2:3
15.06.25	Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima	2:1
04.06.25	Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellín	1:3
15.05.25	Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima	0:1
22.09.24	Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima	0:1
09.03.24	Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellín	2:2
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.24	Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellín	0:1 penalties

Upcoming Matches