Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 16

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro (Ibagué)

Referee: Ortega C. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play, Win Sports
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional, ViX Latin America


	Deportes Tolima		Deportivo La Equidad

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.1	10	Watch
	1.55	3.6	5.75
	1.42	4.2	8.6
	1.4	4.22	9.11
	1.42	4.03	8.95	Watch
	1.57	3.5	6
	1.4	4.3	8.8	Watch
	1.44	4.1	8.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.62)	4.01 ↑ (3.63)	8.18 ↑ (5.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Tolima
65%

Draw
23.5%

Deportivo La Equidad
11.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

25.8%

16.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

24.6%

15.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportes Tolima's performance.

Deportivo La Equidad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo La Equidad than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Deportes Tolima - Deportivo La Equidad Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Tolima (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Deportes Tolima will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Fiermarin C. (G) 26. Hurtado Torres Y. D. 17. Torres M. 4. Quinones J. 33. Velasquez S. 15. Nieto J. (C) 6. Trujillo C. 7. Gonzalez J. 25. Arroyo A. 18. Perez K. 11. Lencina G.	1. Varela C. (G) 26. Torralvo A. 2. Polanco D. 30. Agron B. 20. Angel Amaya Pena M. 21. Gomez S. 15. Castro D. 14. Acosta F. (C) 16. Mayo S. 28. Chaverra F. 10. Cruz W.
Substitutes
71. Arrieta C. 23. Castro A. 1. Cuesta W. (G) 24. Parra Osorio A. 3. Quinones J. 42. Quinones J. 80. Rovira B.	27. Caicedo B. 11. Castro Espinosa B. D. 25. Lopez S. 12. Perez A. (G) 9. Renan Oliveira 8. Tamara S. 4. Tegue G.
Coaches
Rescalvo I.	Bodmer J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Chaverra F. ⚽,
19', 1 - 1, Nieto J. ⚽,
26', Torres M. 🟨,
28', 2 - 1, Arroyo A. ⚽,
45+3', Arroyo A. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gomez S. ↓, Castro Espinosa B. D. ↑,
49', Agron B. 🟨,
51', Quinones J. 🟨,
52', Castro D. 🟨,
59', Mayo S. 🟨,
65', Chaverra F. ↓, Renan Oliveira ↑,
65', Castro D. ↓, Lopez S. ↑,
65', Mayo S. ↓, Tamara S. ↑,
68', Lencina G. ↓, Parra Osorio A. ↑,
76', Nieto J. ↓, Rovira B. ↑,
76', Perez K. ↓, Castro A. ↑,
76', Cruz W. ↓, Caicedo B. ↑,
82', Gonzalez J. ↓, Arrieta C. ↑,
86', Castro A. 🟨,
86', Angel Amaya Pena M. 🟨,
90+1', Polanco D. 🟨,
90+1', Castro Espinosa B. D. 🟨,
90+1', Arrieta C. 🟨,
90+4', Parra Osorio A. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 19).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Deportes Tolima won 3.

Deportes Tolima is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches La Equidad is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Deportes Tolima is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Deportes Tolima won 9 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 24:12 (average 1.2:0.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Deportes Tolima won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 16:6 (average 1.6:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
20.04.25	Envigado - Deportes Tolima	3:1 ✺
15.04.25	Deportes Tolima - Junior Barranquilla	0:0 ✺
05.04.25	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:1 ✺
01.04.25	Boyacá Chicó - Deportes Tolima	1:4 ✺
24.03.25	Deportes Tolima - Llaneros SA	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTWWW
- Deportivo La Equidad
Colombian Primera A
19.04.25	Deportivo La Equidad - América de Cali	2:0 ✺
16.04.25	Once Caldas - Deportivo La Equidad	3:0 ✺
10.04.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Independiente Santa Fe	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Deportivo Cali - Deportivo La Equidad	3:1 ✺
31.03.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Junior Barranquilla	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
10.08.24	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo La Equidad	5:1
23.05.24	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo La Equidad	3:0
18.05.24	Deportivo La Equidad - Deportes Tolima	2:3
10.02.24	Deportivo La Equidad - Deportes Tolima	1:1
26.08.23	Deportivo La Equidad - Deportes Tolima	0:0
14.03.23	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo La Equidad	1:0
21.08.22	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo La Equidad	1:1

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