Match Info

SPAIN: TERCERA RFEF - GROUP 6 - ROUND 26

Date: 24 March 2024, Sunday


	Acero		Castellonense

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.95	2.65
	2.55	3	2.7
	2.62	2.94	2.54
	2.62	2.78	2.53
	2.64	2.96	2.56
	2.55	3	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↓ (3.07)	2.94 ↓ (3)	2.61 ↑ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Acero
35%

Draw
30.6%

Castellonense
34.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.6%

30.3%

40.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

30.6%

39.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Acero has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Acero's performance.

Castellonense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Castellonense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Acero than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Acero that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castellonense than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Castellonense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
75', 🟥,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 and 12).

Acero is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Castellonense is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Castellonense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Acero won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Acero
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 6
16.03.24	Patacona - Acero	3:2 ✺
10.03.24	Acero - Español de San Vicente	1:3 ✺
06.03.24	Acero - Soneja	1:0 ✺
03.03.24	Gandía - Acero	0:0 ✺
18.02.24	Castellon B - Acero	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LLWTL
- UD Castellonense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 6
20.03.24	Ontinyent 1931 - Castellonense	2:0 ✺
15.03.24	Castellonense - Roda	0:0 ✺
10.03.24	Rayo Ibense - Castellonense	1:1 ✺
03.03.24	Castellonense - Silla	1:0 ✺
18.02.24	Castellonense - Elche Ilicitano	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 6
05.11.23	Castellonense - Acero	1:1

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