Match Info

First League - Round 15

Date: 24 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Namys Stadium (Šymkent)


	Akademiya Ontustik		Kaspiy Aktau

	1	X	2
	6.5	5.15	1.31
	1.00	1.00	1.15	Watch
	7.25	5.2	1.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.92 ↓ (6.57)	3.78 ↓ (5.03)	1.25 ↓ (1.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Akademiya Ontustik
16.1%

Draw
20.9%

Kaspiy Aktau
63%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.9%

18.2%

67.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.5%

17.6%

70%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Akademiya Ontustik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Kaspiy Aktau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Akademiya Ontustik than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kaspiy Aktau than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kaspiy Aktau could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Akademiya Ontustik - Kaspiy Aktau Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kaspiy (votes: 2 - 100%).

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Shanshar N. (G) 30. Alkaydarov S. 41. Amantayev M. 29. Askar K. (C) 28. Nyshantay D. 65. Sagyndyk N. 55. Serik N. 89. Temirali M. 48. Toktybay B. 79. Toktybay M. 4. Turganov A.	20. Pasechenko A. (C) 10. Baytana B. 4. Kadyrbaev E. 47. Konlimkos B. 22. Kurbanov T. 8. Raskatov V. 14. Serikbay A. 13. Serikbay M. 5. Taipov K. 19. Taykenov M. 71. Turlybek M.
Substitutes
8. Abdimazhit R. 21. Amangeldy B. 17. Babanazarov Z. 58. Donbay D. 20. Erzhigit Z. 23. Kazhigaliev A. 7. Niyazkulov B. 1. Smaylov E. (G) 64. Tolepbergen A.	70. Abdulla N. 21. Aripov D. 2. Aslan R. 1. Ayazbaev N. (G) 7. Kabylan B. 23. Kozhamberdy Z. 28. Oralbay E. 6. Shakhmetov M. 48. Zhumabay E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
1', 0 - 1, Turlybek M. ⚽, Kurbanov T. (A),
33', Baytana B. 🟨,
34', Toktybay B. 🟨,
37', Alkaydarov S. 🟨,
45+2', Toktybay M. 🟨,
45+3', 0 - 2, Konlimkos B. ⚽, Kurbanov T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 4)
46', Alkaydarov S. ↓, Niyazkulov B. ↑,
46', Temirali M. ↓, Amangeldy B. ↑,
51', 1 - 2, Toktybay M. ⚽, Toktybay B. (A),
53', 1 - 3, Turlybek M. ⚽,
62', Nyshantay D. ↓, Babanazarov Z. ↑,
66', 1 - 4, Turlybek M. ⚽, Konlimkos B. (A),
68', Baytana B. ↓, Kabylan B. ↑,
69', Konlimkos B. ↓, Kozhamberdy Z. ↑,
69', Turlybek M. ↓, Oralbay E. ↑,
71', Serik N. ↓, Kazhigaliev A. ↑,
75', Kazhigaliev A. 🟨,
78', Toktybay M. ↓, Tolepbergen A. ↑,
80', Babanazarov Z. 🟨,
80', Kurbanov T. ↓, Abdulla N. ↑,
81', 1 - 5, Oralbay E. ⚽,
83', Kadyrbaev E. ↓, Aslan R. ↑,
87', 1 - 6, Kozhamberdy Z. ⚽,
90+3', Babanazarov Z. 🟥,
90+4', Oralbay E. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

Akademiya Ontustik is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Kaspiy Aktau is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Kaspiy Aktau is the undisputed favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Akademiya Ontustik
Kazakh First League
18.07.25	Taraz - Akademiya Ontustik	1:1 ✺
11.07.25	Zhetisay - Akademiya Ontustik	0:2 ✺
03.07.25	Akademiya Ontustik - AKAS	2:0 ✺
19.06.25	Akademiya Ontustik - Kairat 2	3:5 ✺
12.06.25	Aktobe 2 - Akademiya Ontustik	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 TWWLW
- FC Kaspiy Aktau
Kazakh First League
18.07.25	Kaspiy Aktau - Zhetisay	2:2 ✺
11.07.25	Shakhter Karagandy - Kaspiy Aktau	2:3 ✺
26.06.25	Aktobe 2 - Kaspiy Aktau	0:3 ✺
20.06.25	Kaspiy Aktau - Batyr Ekibastuz	5:3 ✺
13.06.25	Ertis Pavlodar - Kaspiy Aktau	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TWWWW

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