Match Info

Premier League - Round 20

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Pavlodar)


	Ertis Pavlodar		Kaspiy Aktau

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.40	3.90
	1.68	3.25	4.10	Watch
	1.86	3.50	4.92
	1.77	3.47	4.29	Watch
	1.62	3.30	5.30
	3.42	3.32	2.13	Watch
	1.75	3.30	4.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (3.13)	3.36 ↑ (3.31)	4.11 ↑ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ertis Pavlodar
48.3%

Draw
28.4%

Kaspiy Aktau
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

27.8%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.3%

26.8%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ertis Pavlodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ertis Pavlodar's performance.

Kaspiy Aktau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kaspiy Aktau might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (-20%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ertis Pavlodar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kaspiy Aktau than the current prediction. (+21.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kaspiy Aktau could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Ertis Pavlodar - Kaspiy Aktau Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ertis will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Kaspiy will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ertis: 64.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ertis (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Kaspiy (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ertis (votes: 1 - 50%). Kaspiy (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Sarnavskyi B. (G) 17. Opeh S. 56. Yudenkov R. (C) 25. Jevtic M. 12. Karimov R. 6. Shimamura Y. 35. Ramos L. 24. Khalmatov M. 98. Sultaniyazov Z. 97. Poe J. 32. Falaye O. A.	1. Ayazbaev N. (G) 27. Nechayev D. 14. Amaral A. 30. Morgado B. 29. Bekmyrza A. 15. Epton D. 23. Nabikhanov A. (C) 26. Sedko P. 7. Kabylan B. 11. Ndombasi N. 93. Sylla K.
Substitutes
13. Baybosynov N. 21. Berdibek D. 8. Esimbekov D. 45. Iyede S. 26. Mbodj M. 7. Mukhametzhanov T. 15. Nyrkov D. 31. Rakhmetulla E. (G) 14. Raskatov V. 1. Rikhard M. (G) 4. Slambekov D. 5. Toleuov B.	21. Aripov D. 16. Baydavletov A. 55. Elemes N. 60. Kaldybay B. (G) 67. Kalmyrza M. 17. Klimovich V. 18. Kucheriavyi M. 28. Kurbanov T. 13. Serikbay M. 10. Umaev I. 47. Usenov D.
Coaches
Eslyamov M.	Shoytymov E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', Bekmyrza A. 🟨,
12', 0 - 1, Ndombasi N. ⚽, Sylla K. (A),
14', Kabylan B. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Falaye O. A. ↓, Baybosynov N. ↑,
46', Jevtic M. ↓, Mbodj M. ↑,
46', Kabylan B. ↓, Usenov D. ↑,
52', Morgado B. 🟨,
54', 1 - 1, Poe J. ⚽,
58', Sylla K. ↓, Umaev I. ↑,
59', 2 - 1, Shimamura Y. ⚽,
65', 2 - 2, Sedko P. (Penalty Awarded),
75', Shimamura Y. ↓, Mukhametzhanov T. ↑,
76', Ndombasi N. ↓, Kucheriavyi M. ↑,
77', Mbodj M. 🟨,
80', Khalmatov M. 🟨,
84', Sedko P. ↓, Serikbay M. ↑,
84', Nechayev D. ↓, Aripov D. ↑,
86', Poe J. 🟨,
86', Usenov D. 🟨,
86', Nabikhanov A. 🟨,
89', Khalmatov M. ↓, Toleuov B. ↑,
90+11', Amaral A. 🟥,
90+15', 3 - 2, Poe J. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ First League and 10).

Recent performances by Ertis have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Kaspiy is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Kaspiy may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ertis will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Ertis won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:9. (average 0.5:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Ertis won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Kaspij Aktau	26	8	5	13	27:36	-9	29
11	Ertis Pavlodar	25	6	8	11	26:34	-8	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakh Premier League
25.07.26	Ulytau - Ertis Pavlodar	1:2 ✺
11.07.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Zhenis	0:1 ✺
05.07.26	Kaisar - Ertis Pavlodar	0:0 ✺
28.06.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kaisar	1:2 ✺
20.06.26	Zhenis - Ertis Pavlodar	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WLTLT
- FC Kaspiy Aktau
Kazakh Premier League
26.07.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Zhenis	3:2 ✺
18.07.26	Kaisar - Kaspiy Aktau	1:1 ✺
11.07.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Ordabasy	3:2 ✺
05.07.26	Atyrau - Kaspiy Aktau	1:2 ✺
27.06.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Atyrau	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 35.4 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
22.05.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Ertis Pavlodar	2:2
Kazakh First League
12.09.25	Kaspiy Aktau - Ertis Pavlodar	2:0
13.06.25	Ertis Pavlodar - Kaspiy Aktau	0:2
Kazakh Cup
23.03.25	Kaspiy Aktau - Ertis Pavlodar	3:0

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