Match Info

Premier League - Round 10

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Akhmat-Arena (Groznyj)

Referee: Kukulyak E. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Belarus 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 2


	Akhmat Grozny		Akron Tolyatti

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.98	4.98
	1.73	4.2	5.01
	1.74	3.7	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.76)	3.96 ↑ (3.7)	4.8 ↑ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Akhmat Grozny
55.7%

Draw
24.3%

Akron Tolyatti
20%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

25.1%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

24.5%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Akhmat Grozny has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Akron Tolyatti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Akhmat Grozny than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Akron Tolyatti than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Akhmat Grozny - Akron Tolyatti Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Akhmat (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Akhmat (2.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Akhmat Grozny will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Akhmat (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
88. Shelia G. (G) 81. Sidorov M. 90. Ndong O. 75. Ghandri N. 8. Bogosavac M. 11. Silva I. 42. Keliano M. 20. Samorodov M. 17. Cacintura E. 7. Sadulaev L. (C) 77. Melkadze G.	88. Gudiev V. (C) 71. Pestryakov D. 26. Escoval R. 24. Nedelcearu I. 21. Fernandez R. 23. Bistrovic K. 8. Maradishvili K. 35. Djakovac I. 7. Sevikyan E. 22. Dzyuba A. 6. Kuzmin M.
Substitutes
37. Gadio P. 70. Gadzhiev A. 32. Gaibov I. 4. Ibishev T. 13. Konate M. 9. Mansilla B. 22. Mohazabieh M. 55. Todorovic D. 1. Ulyanov V. (G) 40. Utsiev R. 71. Yakuev M. 10. Zhemaletdinov R.	86. Agapov I. 17. Bakaev S. 81. Bazilevskiy N. 11. Benchimol 80. Khosonov K. 15. Loncar S. 2. Rocha Y. 77. Savichev K. 32. Terekhovsky I. (G) 78. Vasyutin A. (G)
Coaches
Cherchesov S.	Tedeev Z.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Cacintura E. ⚽, Melkadze G. (A),
43', Escoval R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Escoval R. ↓, Khosonov K. ↑,
46', Maradishvili K. ↓, Agapov I. ↑,
56', Sadulaev L. 🟨,
65', Samorodov M. ↓, Zhemaletdinov R. ↑,
65', Sadulaev L. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
65', Kuzmin M. ↓, Loncar S. ↑,
65', Djakovac I. ↓, Bakaev S. ↑,
72', 2 - 0, Mansilla B. ⚽, Keliano M. (A),
74', Keliano M. ↓, Ibishev T. ↑,
79', Fernandez R. ↓, Benchimol ↑,
83', Sidorov M. 🟨,
84', Melkadze G. ↓, Konate M. ↑,
90', 3 - 0, Mansilla B. ⚽, Konate M. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 and 14 in the zone Premier League (Relegation)).

Recent performances by Akhmat have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Akron has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Akhmat is the team to beat.

There will not play in Akron: Bokoev M. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Akhmat won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Akhmat won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Akhmat Grozny
Russian Premier League
20.09.25	Nizhny Novgorod - Akhmat Grozny	1:2 ✺
Russian Cup
17.09.25	Zenit - Akhmat Grozny	2:1 ✺
Russian Premier League
13.09.25	Akhmat Grozny - Lokomotiv Moscow	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Rostov - Akhmat Grozny	1:1 ✺
Russian Cup
26.08.25	Akhmat Grozny - Rubin Kazan	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WLTTW
- Akron Tolyatti
Russian Premier League
20.09.25	Akron Tolyatti - Rubin Kazan	2:2 ✺
Russian Cup
16.09.25	Akron Tolyatti - Lokomotiv Moscow	1:3 ✺
Russian Premier League
13.09.25	Krasnodar - Akron Tolyatti	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Akron Tolyatti - Baltika Kaliningrad	0:2 ✺
Russian Cup
28.08.25	Lokomotiv Moscow - Akron Tolyatti	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
11.05.25	Akron Tolyatti - Akhmat Grozny	3:2
31.08.24	Akhmat Grozny - Akron Tolyatti	0:0

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