Match Info

Premier League - Round 5

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Turkestan Arena (Turkestan)

Referee: Sultangaliev R. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Sport+


	Aktobe		Kaspiy Aktau

	1	X	2
	1.78	3.5	4.15	Watch
	1.75	3.62	4.17
	1.95	3.6	3.38	Watch
	1.73	3.3	4.2
	1.7	3.78	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.51)	3.56 ↓ (3.9)	4.13 ↓ (5.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aktobe
51.8%

Draw
25.9%

Kaspiy Aktau
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61%

23.6%

15.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aktobe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aktobe's form might have worsened.

Kaspiy Aktau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kaspiy Aktau's recent form is better than expected.

Aktobe - Kaspiy Aktau Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Zarutskiy A. (G) 31. Tanzharikov A. 18. Ordets I. 23. Erlanov T. 27. Dosmagambetov T. 30. Korzun N. 21. Alvarez P. 14. Pibe 10. Zeljkovic A. 7. Sosah D. 11. Shushenachev A.	24. Zhomart D. (G) 21. Aripov D. 14. Amaral A. 30. Morgado B. 19. Taykenov M. 23. Nabikhanov A. 5. Strumia L. 27. Esimbekov D. 13. Serikbay M. 11. Ndombasi N. 9. Zulfikarov B.
Substitutes
42. Baydavletov A. 80. Kenesov A. 29. Kikbaev M. 52. Kusainov S. (G) 19. Laturnus V. 17. Nani 22. Seydakhmet E. 12. Topalov D. 1. Trofimets I. (G) 20. Zhukov G.	33. Alan Dias 1. Ayazbaev N. (G) 67. Berdibek D. 55. Elemes N. 99. Gustavo Franca 90. Islam N. 7. Kabylan B. 69. Kuanysh M. 28. Petrovic B. 15. Serikbay A. 10. Umaev I. 77. Zhazmagambetov Z.
Coaches
Tarkovic S.	Aliev P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', Korzun N. 🟨,
44', Zulfikarov B. 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Shushenachev A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Korzun N. ↓, Nani ↑,
65', Zhomart D. ↓, Ayazbaev N. ↑,
76', Aripov D. ↓, Kabylan B. ↑,
76', Serikbay M. ↓, Berdibek D. ↑,
77', Zulfikarov B. ↓, Umaev I. ↑,
83', Strumia L. ↓, Serikbay A. ↑,
86', Zarutskiy A. 🟨,
87', Zeljkovic A. ↓, Zhukov G. ↑,
87', Pibe ↓, Kenesov A. ↑,
90+3', Shushenachev A. ↓, Laturnus V. ↑,
90+4', Nani 🟨,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium.

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ First League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aktobe won 1.

In recent matches, Aktobe has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Kaspiy Aktau may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Aktobe is considered a favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Aktobe won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Aktobe won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.7:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Aktobe	26	12	6	8	38:31	7	42
10	Kaspij Aktau	26	8	5	13	27:36	-9	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Aktobe
Kazakh Cup
09.04.26	Arys - Aktobe	0:4 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
05.04.26	Ulytau - Aktobe	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Aktobe - Yelimay Semey	1:4 ✺
16.03.26	Kairat - Aktobe	1:0 ✺
07.03.26	Aktobe - Tobol Kostanay	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WTLLW
- FC Kaspiy Aktau
Kazakh Premier League
05.04.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Zhetysu	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Altai Semey - Kaspiy Aktau	0:0 ✺
17.03.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Okzhetpes	1:3 ✺
08.03.26	Kyzylzhar - Kaspiy Aktau	2:1 ✺
Kazakh First League
24.10.25	AKAS - Kaspiy Aktau	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
30.07.23	Kaspiy Aktau - Aktobe	2:2
21.05.23	Aktobe - Kaspiy Aktau	0:0
08.10.22	Aktobe - Kaspiy Aktau	4:0
08.05.22	Kaspiy Aktau - Aktobe	2:0
30.10.21	Aktobe - Kaspiy Aktau	1:5
14.03.21	Kaspiy Aktau - Aktobe	1:1

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