Match Info

Kazakhstan Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Koblandy Batyr Stadium (Aktobe)

Referee: Gorda D. (Kaz)


	Aktobe		Yelimay Semey

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.65	3.1	2.35
	2.42	3.2	2.58	Watch
	2.4	3.26	2.55
	2.37	2.55	3.75	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.5
	2.43	3.2	2.59
	2.6	3	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.29)	3.03 ↓ (3.33)	2.66 ↓ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aktobe
36.3%

Draw
29.8%

Yelimay Semey
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

27.3%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

28.7%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aktobe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Yelimay Semey has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aktobe than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aktobe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yelimay Semey than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Aktobe - Yelimay Semey Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Zarutskiy A. (G) 31. Tanzharikov A. 23. Erlanov T. 18. Ordets I. 3. Mitrovic D. 10. Zeljkovic A. 30. Korzun N. 21. Alvarez P. 22. Seydakhmet E. 17. Nani 19. Laturnus V.	99. Stojkovic V. (G) 2. Adambaev A. 4. Zhumakhanov A. 5. Belancic M. 10. Payruz Z. 23. Ilic H. 44. Tyulyubay A. 27. Berezkin E. 17. Bakhtiyarov A. 11. Sviridov I. 7. Murtazaev R.
Substitutes
73. Arystanov D. 42. Baydavletov A. 27. Dosmagambetov T. 5. Kairov B. 80. Kenesov A. 29. Kikbaev M. 52. Kusainov S. (G) 54. Ospan D. 14. Pibe 49. Toregali N. 1. Trofimets I. (G) 20. Zhukov G.	20. Ashirbek A. 83. Baygaliev A. 88. Baygaliev A. 3. Higor Gabriel 50. Miladinovic I. 18. Orazov R. 14. Palacio D. 22. Pivkin N. (G) 77. Placca F. 1. Tsuprikov E. (G) 67. Zhilin A.
Coaches
Tarkovic S.	Karpovich A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Mitrovic D. ↓, Dosmagambetov T. ↑,
25', Korzun N. 🟨,
27', Seydakhmet E. 🟨,
31', Ilic H. 🟨,
43', Korzun N. ↓, Zhukov G. ↑,
45+3', Zhukov G. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Seydakhmet E. ↓, Kenesov A. ↑,
59', 1 - 0, Nani ⚽, Laturnus V. (A),
63', Belancic M. 🟨,
66', Ilic H. ↓, Orazov R. ↑,
66', Adambaev A. ↓, Miladinovic I. ↑,
66', Sviridov I. ↓, Ashirbek A. ↑,
66', Murtazaev R. ↓, Placca F. ↑,
67', Laturnus V. ↓, Kikbaev M. ↑,
68', Zeljkovic A. ↓, Pibe ↑,
70', Tanzharikov A. 🟨,
70', Payruz Z. 🟨,
73', Orazov R. 🟨,
83', 2 - 0, Nani ⚽, Tanzharikov A. (A),
86', Belancic M. 🟨,
90+4', 2 - 1, Orazov R. ⚽,
90+6', Erlanov T. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aktobe won 1.

Now, both teams are in good form.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Aktobe won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 1.3:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Aktobe won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 1.3:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Aktobe
Kazakh Premier League
25.04.26	Aktobe - Ertis Pavlodar	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Zhenis - Aktobe	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Aktobe - Kaspiy Aktau	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
09.04.26	Arys - Aktobe	0:4 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
05.04.26	Ulytau - Aktobe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLWWT
- Yelimay Semey
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Kairat - Yelimay Semey	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Yelimay Semey - Astana	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Zhetysu - Yelimay Semey	0:1 ✺
Kazakh Cup
08.04.26	Turan Turkistan - Yelimay Semey	1:4 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
04.04.26	Yelimay Semey - Tobol Kostanay	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
21.03.26	Aktobe - Yelimay Semey	1:4
10.08.25	Yelimay Semey - Aktobe	2:1
11.05.25	Aktobe - Yelimay Semey	1:0
31.08.24	Aktobe - Yelimay Semey	1:3
Kazakh Cup
19.06.24	Yelimay Semey - Aktobe	2:1
Kazakh Premier League
16.06.24	Yelimay Semey - Aktobe	2:2
Kazakh Cup
29.05.24	Aktobe - Yelimay Semey	2:0

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