Match Info

Premier League - Round 16

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Beirut Municipal Stadium (Beirut)


	Al-Ahed		Tadamon Sour

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.5	5.5	Watch
	1.56	3.71	5.64	Watch
	1.53	3.3	5.75
	1.65	3.6	5.4
	1.35	4.2	8.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↑ (1.35)	3.66 ↓ (4.2)	6.18 ↓ (8.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Ahed
60.1%

Draw
25.1%

Tadamon Sour
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.6%

21.7%

10.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

13%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Ahed has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Al-Ahed's form might have worsened.

Tadamon Sour has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Ahed than the current prediction. (-19.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Al-Ahed that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tadamon Sour than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Al Ahed - Tadamon Sour Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Challenge League and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Ahed won 4.

Recent performances by Al-Ahed have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tadamon has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Tadamon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Tadamon has had a series of away games.

In this match, Al-Ahed is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Al-Ahed won 12 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 32:7. (average 2.3:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Al-Ahed won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 24:5. (average 2.7:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Al Ahed	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Tadamon	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Ahed SC
Lebanese Premier League
15.02.26	Al-Mabarrah - Al-Ahed	1:0 ✺
Lebanese Cup
11.02.26	Al-Ahed - Hekmeh	0:1 penalties ✺
Lebanese Premier League
06.02.26	Jwaya - Al-Ahed	0:1 ✺
01.02.26	Racing Beirut - Al-Ahed	0:2 ✺
24.01.26	Al-Ahed - Al-Abbassieh	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLWWL
- Tadamon Sour
Lebanese Premier League
13.02.26	Al-Abbassieh - Tadamon Sour	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Tadamon Sour - Shabab Al Sahel	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	Al-Safa Beyrut - Tadamon Sour	2:0 ✺
Lebanese Cup
18.01.26	Al-Ahed - Tadamon Sour	3:1 ✺
Lebanese Premier League
26.12.25	Al-Ansar Beirut - Tadamon Sour	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Lebanese Cup
18.01.26	Al-Ahed - Tadamon Sour	3:1
Lebanese Premier League
25.10.25	Tadamon Sour - Al-Ahed	0:2
08.07.25	Al-Ahed - Tadamon Sour	5:3
24.05.25	Al-Ahed - Tadamon Sour	3:0
24.04.25	Tadamon Sour - Al-Ahed	1:0
13.02.25	Al-Ahed - Tadamon Sour	4:0
09.11.23	Al-Ahed - Tadamon Sour	1:0

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