Match Info

AFC Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 25 April 2025, Friday

Location: King Abdullah Sports City (Jeddah)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Al-Hilal		Gwangju

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.21	6.75	11.5	Watch
	1.14	8	15	Watch
	1.13	9.5	16.5
	1.13	8.44	15.47	Watch
	1.22	6	12	Watch
	1.16	8.84	13.3	Watch
	1.14	7.8	15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.16 ↓ (1.32)	7.9 ↑ (5.54)	14.11 ↑ (7.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Hilal
81.4%

Draw
12%

Gwangju
6.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.8%

16.9%

12.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

75.1%

17.9%

11.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Hilal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Al-Hilal's performance.

Gwangju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gwangju might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Hilal than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Al-Hilal that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gwangju than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	0%	38.5%

Al Hilal - Gwangju Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Al-Hilal will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Gwangju will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Al-Hilal: 35% – 88%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.25 - Al-Hilal (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Hilal (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
37. Bono (G) 20. Cancelo J. 3. Koulibaly K. 87. Tambakti H. 6. Lodi R. 8. Neves R. 22. Milinkovic-Savic S. 77. Malcom 11. Marcos Leonardo 29. Al Dawsari S. (C) 9. Mitrovic A.	1. Kim Kyung-Min (G) 2. Cho Sung-Gwon 15. Byeon Jun-Soo 39. Min Sang-Gi 27. Kim Jin-Ho 7. Asani J. 24. Lee K. (C) 55. Park Tae-Jun 11. Gabriel Tigrao 30. Choi Kyoung-Rok 90. Reis
Substitutes
5. Al Bulayhi A. 4. Al Dawsari K. 16. Al Dawsari N. 7. Al Ghannam K. 99. Al Hamdan A. 24. Al Harbi M. 21. Al Owais M. (G) 15. Al Qahtani M. 12. Al Shahrani Y. 88. Al Yami H. 27. Kaio Cesar 28. Kanno M.	6. Ahn Young-Kyu 5. Jin Si-woo 80. Ju Se-Jong 42. Kang H. S. 31. Kim Dong-Hwa (G) 47. Kim Han-Gil 45. Kwon Sung-Yun 3. Lee Min-Ki 88. Moon Min-seo 77. Oh Hoo-Sung 9. Park In-Hyeok 13. Park Jeong-In
Coaches
Jesus J.	Lee Jung-Hyo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Milinkovic-Savic S. ⚽, Al Dawsari S. (A),
25', 2 - 0, Marcos Leonardo ⚽, Malcom (A),
33', 3 - 0, Al Dawsari S. ⚽, Marcos Leonardo (A),
35', Gabriel Tigrao ↓, Oh Hoo-Sung ↑,
42', Cancelo J. ↓, Al Shahrani Y. ↑,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
55', 4 - 0, Mitrovic A. ⚽, Milinkovic-Savic S. (A),
62', Lee K. ↓, Ju Se-Jong ↑,
62', Cho Sung-Gwon ↓, Kim Han-Gil ↑,
62', Choi Kyoung-Rok ↓, Park In-Hyeok ↑,
68', Al Dawsari S. ↓, Al Dawsari N. ↑,
68', Marcos Leonardo ↓, Kaio Cesar ↑,
72', Kim Jin-Ho 🟨,
79', 5 - 0, Malcom ⚽, Mitrovic A. (A),
81', Milinkovic-Savic S. ↓, Kanno M. ↑,
81', Malcom ↓, Al Hamdan A. ↑,
84', 6 - 0, Al Dawsari N. ⚽, Kanno M. (A),
86', Byeon Jun-Soo ↓, Ahn Young-Kyu ↑,
88', 7 - 0, Al Hamdan A. ⚽, Mitrovic A. (A),

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Recent matches Al-Hilal is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Gwangju is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Al-Hilal is indisputable favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Hilal Riyadh
Saudi Professional League
21.04.25	Al-Hilal - Al-Shabab Riyadh	2:2 ✺
17.04.25	Al-Hilal - Al-Khaleej	3:0 ✺
11.04.25	Al-Ettifaq Dammam - Al-Hilal	1:1 ✺
04.04.25	Al-Hilal - Al-Nassr Riyadh	1:3 ✺
15.03.25	Al-Taawoun - Al-Hilal	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TWTLW
- Gwangju FC
South Korean K-League 1
19.04.25	FC Seoul - Gwangju	1:2 ✺
South Korean Cup
16.04.25	Gwangju - Gyeongju KH&NP	2:0 ✺
South Korean K-League 1
13.04.25	Gangwon - Gwangju	1:0 ✺
09.04.25	Gwangju - Daegu	2:1 ✺
06.04.25	Gwangju - Jeju	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WWLWW

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