Match Info

K League 1 - Round 28

Date: 9 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Gwangju Football Stadium (Gwangju)

Where to Watch on TV:


South-korea	Coupang Play
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	K League TV


	Gwangju		Jeju

	1	X	2
	3.80	3.50	1.83	Watch
	3.90	3.60	1.83
	3.60	3.35	1.84
	4.20	3.77	1.92
	4.04	3.56	1.87	Watch
	4.20	3.75	1.85
	4.16	3.64	1.86	Watch
	3.80	3.50	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.96 ↑ (3.5)	3.58 ↑ (3.05)	1.86 ↓ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gwangju
23.6%

Draw
26.1%

Jeju
50.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.4%

29.2%

45.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24%

27.6%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gwangju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Jeju has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gwangju than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jeju than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Gwangju - Jeju Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Jeju (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Gwangju (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Jeju will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gwangju (votes: 1 - 50%). Jeju (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Kim Dong-Hwa (G) 22. Kwon Sung-Yun 37. Ri Yong-jik 2. Jang Seok-Hwan 17. Joao Pedro 40. Shin Chang-Moo (C) 10. Choi Kyoung-Rok 14. Yu Je-Ho 9. Ha Seung-Un 50. Ba Loua A. 18. Iredale J.	1. Kim Dong-Jun (G) 47. Park Min-jae 2. Figueiredo T. 3. Celestine J. 13. Jeong Woon (C) 33. Park Su-bin 5. Italo 20. Jang M. 94. Emerson Negueba 11. Shin Sang-Eun 9. Matheus Aias
Substitutes
19. Ahn Hyeok-Ju 11. Fridjonsson H. 16. Joung Ji-hun 8. Ju Se-Jong 1. Kim Kyeong-min (G) 24. Kim Y. 39. Min Sang-Gi 33. Park Won-Jae 7. Saitoski E.	24. Choi Byung-wook 81. Heo J. (G) 4. Heo Kang-Jun 88. Jo In-jung 39. Kim Jae-min 41. Kim Jae-Woo 18. Kim Shin-Jin 7. Park Chang-Jun 17. Yu In-Soo
Coaches
Lee J.	Costa S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Jeong Woon ↓, Yu In-Soo ↑,
58', Shin Sang-Eun ↓, Choi Byung-wook ↑,
59', Shin Chang-Moo ↓, Joung Ji-hun ↑,
63', 0 - 1, Choi Byung-wook ⚽,
73', Choi Kyoung-Rok ↓, Ju Se-Jong ↑,
73', Ha Seung-Un ↓, Fridjonsson H. ↑,
79', Emerson Negueba 🟨,
79', Emerson Negueba ↓, Park Chang-Jun ↑,
84', Kim Dong-Jun 🟨,
84', Yu Je-Ho 🟨,
86', Park Min-jae ↓, Kim Jae-Woo ↑,
86', Matheus Aias ↓, Kim Shin-Jin ↑,
88', Kwon Sung-Yun ↓, Park Won-Jae ↑,
88', Joung Ji-hun ↓, Saitoski E. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 12 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ K League 1 (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gwangju won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Gwangju may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Jeju has had a series of home games.

In this match, Jeju is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gwangju won 8 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:14. (average 1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Gwangju won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 0.8:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Jeju SK	31	12	10	9	36:31	5	46
12	Gwangju FC ✔	31	2	12	17	25:66	-41	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gwangju FC
South Korean K-League 1
06.09.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Gwangju	2:2 ✺
30.08.26	Gwangju - FC Seoul	2:5 ✺
26.08.26	Gangwon - Gwangju	2:2 ✺
23.08.26	Gwangju - Incheon United	0:1 ✺
South Korean Cup
19.08.26	Ulsan Citizen - Gwangju	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TLTLW
- Jeju SK
South Korean K-League 1
05.09.26	Jeju - Ulsan HD	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Jeju - Daejeon Citizen	3:1 ✺
25.08.26	Jeju - Pohang Steelers	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Jeju - Gimcheon Sangmu	0:0 ✺
South Korean Cup
19.08.26	Anyang - Jeju	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
26.07.26	Gwangju - Jeju	1:2
01.03.26	Jeju - Gwangju	0:0
02.11.25	Gwangju - Jeju	2:0
30.08.25	Jeju - Gwangju	0:1
18.06.25	Jeju - Gwangju	0:1
06.04.25	Gwangju - Jeju	1:0
10.11.24	Jeju - Gwangju	0:0

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