Match Info

Saudi Professional League - Round 15

Date: 12 January 2026, Monday

Location: Kingdom Arena (Riyadh)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Meraj Sport
Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Asia	JACO Middle East
Australia	Channel 10
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Brazil	BandSports, Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
China	QQ Sports
Croatia	SportKlub 1
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 5
Hong-kong	on.cc
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Mexico	FOX One
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Saudi-arabia	Thmanyah App, Thmanyah
Spain	Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+
Usa	Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports 2, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox
World	Onefootball, Sport 24 At Sea


	Al-Hilal		Al-Nassr Riyadh

	1	X	2
	1.9	4.2	2.88
	2	4.05	2.98
	2.15	4.02	2.86	Watch
	1.91	3.8	2.9
	1.95	3.96	2.99
	1.94	4.5	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.45)	4.09 ↑ (3.55)	2.94 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Hilal
46.4%

Draw
22.4%

Al-Nassr Riyadh
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

25.8%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

24.6%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Hilal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Al-Hilal's performance.

Al-Nassr Riyadh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Al-Nassr Riyadh might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Hilal than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Al-Hilal that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Nassr Riyadh than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	14.3%	7.1%

Al Hilal - Al Nassr Riyadh Predictions

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. Al-Hilal will win (votes: 33 - 78.6%). Al-Nassr will win (votes: 3 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Al-Hilal: 66.2% – 91%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Al-Nassr (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Al-Hilal (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Al-Hilal will win (23 of 29 users predict this - 79.31%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Hilal (votes: 24 - 77.4%). Al-Nassr (votes: 3 - 9.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 12.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
17. Al Rubaie M. (G) 87. Tambakti H. 8. Neves R. 24. Al Harbi M. 88. Al Yami H. 22. Milinkovic-Savic S. 16. Al Dawsari N. 19. Hernandez T. 10. Malcom 7. Nunez D. 29. Al Dawsari S. (C)	1. Al Aqidi N. (G) 23. Yahya A. 26. Martinez I. 3. Simakan M. 12. Boushal N. 20. Angelo 11. Brozovic M. 17. Al Khaibari A. 21. Coman K. 79. Joao Felix 7. Ronaldo C. (C)
Substitutes
40. Abu Rasen A. (G) 4. Akcicek Y. 99. Al Hamdan A. 14. Darisi A. 78. Lajami A. 23. Mandash S. 9. Marcos Leonardo 18. Mari P. 25. Patouillet M. (G)	61. Al Buainain M. (G) 2. Al Ghannam S. 19. Al Hassan A. 96. Al Nasser S. 4. Al Sharari N. 77. Camara H. 29. Ghareeb A. 16. Maran M. 80. Wesley
Coaches
Inzaghi S.	Jesus J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
42', 0 - 1, Ronaldo C. ⚽, Coman K. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
53', Brozovic M. 🟨,
57', 1 - 1, Al Dawsari S. (Penalty Awarded),
58', Neves R. 🟨,
60', Al Aqidi N. 🟥,
63', Angelo ↓, Al Buainain M. ↑,
65', Al Khaibari A. 🟨,
72', Simakan M. ↓, Al Hassan A. ↑,
76', Al Dawsari N. ↓, Kanno M. ↑,
76', Al Harbi M. ↓, Mari P. ↑,
81', 2 - 1, Kanno M. ⚽, Neves R. (A),
83', Ronaldo C. ↓, Wesley ↑,
83', Yahya A. ↓, Al Ghannam S. ↑,
90+2', 3 - 1, Neves R. (Penalty Awarded),
90+3', Malcom ↓, Marcos Leonardo ↑,
90+4', Nunez D. ↓, Mandash S. ↑,
90+10', Tambakti H. ↓, Lajami A. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Hilal won 2.

Al-Hilal is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Al-Nassr has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Al-Hilal won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 37:22. (average 1.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Al-Hilal won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:13. (average 1.5:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Al Hilal	8	7	0	1	26:7	19	21
3	Al Nassr	8	6	1	1	19:7	12	19

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Hilal Riyadh
Saudi Professional League
08.01.26	Al-Hilal - Al Hazem	3:0 ✺
04.01.26	Damac - Al-Hilal	0:2 ✺
31.12.25	Al-Kholood - Al-Hilal	1:3 ✺
26.12.25	Al-Hilal - Al-Khaleej	3:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
22.12.25	Al-Sharjah - Al-Hilal	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWWW
- Al-Nassr Riyadh
Saudi Professional League
08.01.26	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Qadisiya	1:2 ✺
02.01.26	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al-Nassr Riyadh	3:2 ✺
30.12.25	Al-Ettifaq Dammam - Al-Nassr Riyadh	2:2 ✺
27.12.25	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al Akhdoud	3:0 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
24.12.25	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Zawraa	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Saudi Professional League
04.04.25	Al-Hilal - Al-Nassr Riyadh	1:3
01.11.24	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Hilal	1:1
Saudi Super Cup
17.08.24	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Hilal	1:4
Saudi King Cup
31.05.24	Al-Hilal - Al-Nassr Riyadh	2:1 penalties
Saudi Professional League
17.05.24	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Hilal	1:1
Saudi Super Cup
08.04.24	Al-Hilal - Al-Nassr Riyadh	2:1
Club Friendly
08.02.24	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Hilal	0:2

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