Match Info

Saudi Professional League - Round 16

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Location: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium (Buraidah)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	JACO Middle East
China	QQ Sports
Saudi-arabia	Thmanyah App, Thmanyah


	Al-Najma		Al Fateh

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.5	1.85
	3.65	3.7	1.85
	3.96	3.77	1.83
	3.5	3.3	1.83
	4.02	3.77	1.94	Watch
	3.66	3.6	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.72 ↑ (3.61)	3.61 ↓ (3.7)	1.87 ↑ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Najma
24.9%

Draw
25.6%

Al Fateh
49.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.4%

24.7%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25%

24.3%

50.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Najma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Al Fateh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Najma than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al Fateh than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.3%	0%	95.7%

Al Najma - Al Fateh Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Al Fateh (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Al Fateh will win (22 of 23 users predict this - 95.65%).
Confidence interval (95%): 87.31% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Al Fateh will win (15 of 15 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Al Fateh (votes: 16 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Victor Braga (G) 24. Al Hawsawi A. 4. Al Haleel N. 3. Samir Caetano (C) 2. Vitao 20. Flores D. 98. Boutobba B. 23. Al Tulayhi R. 43. Tijanic D. 14. Jasim A. 7. Lazaro	1. Pacheco F. (G) 17. Saadane M. 4. Al Jari Z. 55. Al Hamad F. 29. Al Masoud A. 33. Youssouf Z. 6. Masoud N. 15. Baattia S. 94. Al Anazi A. 10. Vargas M. 11. Batna M.
Substitutes
19. Al Abdulraziq F. 77. Al Dubais H. 18. Al Harabi A. 50. Al Hawsawi N. 22. Al Muqaitib K. (G) 15. Al Najjar A. 55. Al Nakhli A. 8. Al Shammeri A. 17. Mile M.	80. Al Abdulwahed F. 97. Al Bukhari A. (G) 98. Al Fawaz A. 25. Al Sahihi M. 37. Al Sarnoukh M. 49. Al Sharfa S. 78. Al Swealem A. 27. Al Zubaidi F. 12. Qasim H.
Coaches
Silva M.	Gomes J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Al Anazi A. ⚽, Youssouf Z. (A),
21', Al Haleel N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Vargas M. ↓, Al Zubaidi F. ↑,
75', 1 - 1, Jasim A. ⚽, Al Tulayhi R. (A),
76', Al Jari Z. ↓, Al Swealem A. ↑,
76', Al Anazi A. ↓, Al Sharfa S. ↑,
82', Al Tulayhi R. ↓, Al Shammeri A. ↑,
88', Al Masoud A. ↓, Qasim H. ↑,
90+3', Masoud N. ↓, Al Sahihi M. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 10).

Al-Najma has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Al Fateh is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Al Fateh may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Al Fateh could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Al Fateh	8	0	3	5	4:15	-11	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Najma Unaizah
Saudi Professional League
12.01.26	Al Hazem - Al-Najma	3:2 ✺
08.01.26	Al-Najma - Al-Ettifaq Dammam	3:4 ✺
02.01.26	Al-Najma - Al-Khaleej	2:2 ✺
29.12.25	Al-Taawoun - Al-Najma	1:0 ✺
25.12.25	Neom - Al-Najma	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLTLL
- Al Fateh SC
Saudi Professional League
13.01.26	Al Fateh - Al-Riyadh	3:1 ✺
10.01.26	Neom - Al Fateh	0:1 ✺
03.01.26	Al Fateh - Al-Shabab Riyadh	2:0 ✺
29.12.25	Al-Khaleej - Al Fateh	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Al Fateh - Al-Ahli Jeddah	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.5 WWWWW

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