Match Info

Saudi Professional League - Round 17

Date: 20 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Al-Shabab Club Stadium (Riyadh)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	JACO Middle East
China	QQ Sports
Hong-kong	on.cc
Saudi-arabia	Thmanyah App, Thmanyah


	Al-Shabab Riyadh		Al-Najma

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.5	5.75
	1.44	4.65	5.9
	1.43	5.16	5.84
	1.4	4.4	5
	1.39	4.65	6.05	Watch
	1.44	4.75	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.52)	4.69 ↑ (3.86)	5.76 ↓ (6.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Shabab Riyadh
64.5%

Draw
19.6%

Al-Najma
15.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.8%

23.9%

15.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.9%

18.4%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Shabab Riyadh has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Al-Najma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Shabab Riyadh than the current prediction. (-17.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Al-Shabab Riyadh that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Najma than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Al Shabab Riyadh - Al Najma Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Al-Shabab (1.66) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Al-Shabab Riyadh will win (17 of 17 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Al-Shabab Riyadh will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Shabab (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. Marcelo Grohe (G) 17. Al Thani M. 2. Al Shwirekh M. 4. Hoedt W. 31. Balobaid S. 7. Hernandez U. 20. Al Sayyali B. 8. Brownhill J. 22. Al Hammami H. 13. Carlos Junior 10. Carrasco Y. (C)	1. Victor Braga (G) 24. Al Hawsawi A. 4. Al Haleel N. 3. Samir Caetano (C) 2. Vitao 23. Al Tulayhi R. 20. Flores D. 43. Tijanic D. 98. Boutobba B. 7. Lazaro 14. Jasim A.
Substitutes
19. Abdullah M. 23. Al Awardi A. (G) 72. Al Sadi N. 16. Al Sibyani H. K. A. 6. Al Subiani F. 63. Jaman A. 5. Makki A.	19. Al Abdulraziq F. 77. Al Dubais H. 18. Al Harabi A. 22. Al Muqaitib K. (G) 15. Al Najjar A. 55. Al Nakhli A. 6. Al Shammari K. 8. Al Shammeri A. 17. Mile M.
Coaches
Alguacil I.	Silva M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Al Haleel N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', Boutobba B. 🟨,
80', Al Tulayhi R. ↓, Al Dubais H. ↑,
80', Lazaro ↓, Al Shammeri A. ↑,
83', Al Sayyali B. ↓, Makki A. ↑,
83', Al Haleel N. ↓, Al Shammari K. ↑,
89', Al Hawsawi A. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Al-Najma may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Al-Shabab is a strong favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Al Shabab	7	0	4	3	6:11	-5	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Shabab Riyadh
Saudi Professional League
17.01.26	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Shabab Riyadh	3:2 ✺
14.01.26	Al-Shabab Riyadh - Neom	3:2 ✺
09.01.26	Al-Taawoun - Al-Shabab Riyadh	2:0 ✺
03.01.26	Al Fateh - Al-Shabab Riyadh	2:0 ✺
31.12.25	Al-Shabab Riyadh - Al-Qadisiya	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWLLL
- Al-Najma Unaizah
Saudi Professional League
16.01.26	Al-Najma - Al Fateh	1:1 ✺
12.01.26	Al Hazem - Al-Najma	3:2 ✺
08.01.26	Al-Najma - Al-Ettifaq Dammam	3:4 ✺
02.01.26	Al-Najma - Al-Khaleej	2:2 ✺
29.12.25	Al-Taawoun - Al-Najma	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TLLTL

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