Match Info

QSL - Round 5

Date: 8 October 2026, Thursday

Location: Al Janoub Stadium (Al Wakrah)

Referee: Al Mazyed M. (Qat)

Where to Watch on TV:


Qatar	Shoof


	Al-Wakrah		Al-Gharafa

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.50	2.85
	2.12	3.55	2.85
	2.08	3.93	3.21
	2.33	3.67	2.72	Watch
	2.03	3.75	3.1
	2.09	3.62	2.85	Watch
	2.08	3.65	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.25)	3.67 ↑ (3.5)	2.93 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Wakrah
43.5%

Draw
25.1%

Al-Gharafa
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

25.5%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

24.1%

37%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Wakrah has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Al-Gharafa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Wakrah than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Al-Wakrah that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Gharafa than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Al-Gharafa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	80%	20%

Al Wakrah - Al Gharafa Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Al-Gharafa will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Gharafa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Abdulla O. (G) 16. Irfan N. 3. Calione P. 2. Lucas Mendes (C) 12. Naji M. 14. Zaky A. 6. Salah O. 7. Assal A. 18. Luis Alberto 75. Zouhzouh A. 93. Laidouni A.	1. N'Diaye K. (G) 2. Al Rashidi A. 18. Al Oui A. 4. Sano S. 23. Fadlalla S. 29. Diaz F. 13. Sassi F. 96. Ounas A. 10. Bennacer I. 8. Brahimi Y. (C) 9. Magri F.
Substitutes
15. Ali A. 20. Al Yazidi N. 17. Boussafi R. 28. El Khatib Y. 5. Fadel A. 10. Gelson Dala 89. Othman A. (G) 22. Ramadan Y. M. (G) 66. Simo	48. Abu Hamdeh F. A. 90. Aladin H. 5. Essam M. 49. Faragalla R. 22. Hassan A. 20. Jang Hyun-Soo 24. Kahiout H. (G) 31. Kone A. (G) 11. Surag A. 6. Traore D.
Coaches
Sierra Jose L.	Martins P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
38', 1 - 0, Laidouni A. ⚽,
45+10', 1 - 1, Brahimi Y. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
48', 1 - 2, Sassi F. ⚽, Ounas A. (A),
54', Al Rashidi A. 🟨,
54', Zaky A. ↓, Gelson Dala ↑,
71', Assal A. ↓, Simo ↑,
71', Irfan N. ↓, Boussafi R. ↑,
72', Martins P. 🟨,
78', Zouhzouh A. (Penalty Awarded),
78', 2 - 2, Gelson Dala ⚽,
82', Al Rashidi A. ↓, Surag A. ↑,
82', Zouhzouh A. ↓, Ali A. ↑,
85', Sano S. 🟨,
87', Sassi F. ↓, Aladin H. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 2, Gelson Dala ⚽, Naji M. (A),
90+5', Gelson Dala 🟨,
90+8', Salah O. 🟨,

Preview

Two table neighbours face each other in what promises to be a tight contest (ranked 11th in the QSL (Relegation) and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Wakrah won 0.

In recent outings, Al-Wakrah has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Al-Gharafa is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Al-Wakrah could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Al-Wakrah has recorded 5 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 30:38 (averaging 1.5:1.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Al-Wakrah against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with 21:24 goals (averaging 2.1:2.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Al Wakrah	5	1	2	2	7:11	-4	5
10	Al Gharafa	5	1	1	3	6:11	-5	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Wakrah SC
Qatar QSL Cup
28.09.26	Al-Kharitiyath - Al-Wakrah	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Al-Wakrah - Al-Sailiya	1:0 ✺
Qatar QSL
10.09.26	Al-Shamal - Al-Wakrah	1:1 ✺
04.09.26	Lusail City - Al-Wakrah	4:0 ✺
27.08.26	Al-Wakrah - Al-Rayyan	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TWTLL
- Al-Gharafa SC
Qatar QSL Cup
01.10.26	Al-Gharafa - Al-Mesaimeer	4:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
15.09.26	Al-Hilal - Al-Gharafa	2:1 ✺
Qatar QSL
11.09.26	Al-Gharafa - Lusail City	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Al-Sadd - Al-Gharafa	4:1 ✺
Qatar Cup
01.09.26	Al-Sadd - Al-Gharafa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Qatar Emir Cup
05.05.26	Al-Wakrah - Al-Gharafa	0:1 penalties
Qatar QSL
08.04.26	Al-Wakrah - Al-Gharafa	3:3
Qatar QSL Cup
13.12.25	Al-Wakrah - Al-Gharafa	2:3
Qatar QSL
21.11.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Wakrah	1:0
11.04.25	Al-Wakrah - Al-Gharafa	1:1
22.11.24	Al-Gharafa - Al-Wakrah	3:1
Qatar QSL Cup
06.09.24	Al-Gharafa - Al-Wakrah	0:3

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