Match Info

MEXICO: LIGA DE EXPANSION MX - CLAUSURA - ROUND 10

Date: 7 March 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Francisco Zarco (Durango)

Referee: Arce V. (Mex)


	Alacranes de Durango		Dorados

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.66	3.7	4
	1.64	3.85	4.6
	1.71	3.7	3.9
	1.71	3.99	4.67
	1.65	3.5	4.5
	1.7	3.85	4.4	Watch
	1.73	3.8	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 (1.69)	3.77 ↑ (3.4)	4.3 ↓ (4.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alacranes de Durango
54.4%

Draw
24.3%

Dorados
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

26.7%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

18.9%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alacranes de Durango has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Dorados has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alacranes de Durango than the current prediction. (-16.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alacranes de Durango that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dorados than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dorados could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	10%	10%

Alacranes de Durango - Dorados Predictions

Users Predictions: Alacranes de Durango will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 17 and 18).

The competitors look crappy now.

In this match Alacranes de Durango is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Alacranes de Durango won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alacranes de Durango
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
28.02.23	Atlético La Paz - Alacranes de Durango	2:1 ✺
22.02.23	Venados - Alacranes de Durango	1:0 ✺
15.02.23	Alacranes de Durango - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1:1 ✺
07.02.23	Leones Negros UdeG - Alacranes de Durango	1:0 ✺
31.01.23	Alacranes de Durango - Cancún	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLTLW
- Dorados de Sinaloa
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
01.03.23	Dorados - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:1 ✺
21.02.23	Cimarrones de Sonora - Dorados	2:0 ✺
14.02.23	Dorados - Tlaxcala	1:2 ✺
08.02.23	Celaya - Dorados	4:2 ✺
31.01.23	Dorados - Pumas Tabasco	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
21.10.22	Dorados - Alacranes de Durango	1:3
24.08.22	Dorados - Alacranes de Durango	2:2

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