Match Info

Super Lig - Round 31

Date: 27 April 2026, Monday

Location: Alanya Oba Stadium (Alanya)

Referee: Ergun O. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 2


	Alanyaspor		Samsunspor

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.1	3.1	Watch
	2.3	3.2	3
	2.42	3.02	3.02
	2.46	3.21	3.23
	2.39	3.19	3.12	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.88
	2.43	3.25	3.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.2)	3.15 ↑ (2.96)	3.08 ↓ (3.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alanyaspor
39.6%

Draw
29.9%

Samsunspor
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

31.9%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

34.4%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alanyaspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Samsunspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Samsunspor's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alanyaspor than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alanyaspor, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Samsunspor than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Samsunspor, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.8%	16.7%	12.5%

Alanyaspor - Samsunspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Alanyaspor will win (votes: 17 - 73.9%). Samsunspor will win (votes: 2 - 8.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 17.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alanyaspor: 56% – 91.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alanyaspor (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Alanyaspor (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Alanyaspor (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
48. Paulo Victor (G) 20. Aksoy F. (C) 3. Lima N. 50. Akdag U. 94. Hadergjonaj F. 58. Maestro 17. Janvier N. 11. Ruan 27. Kaya I. 9. Mounie S. 16. Hwang Ui-Jo	71. Egribayat I. (G) 2. Mendes J. 24. Borevkovic T. 55. Cift Y. E. 28. Gonul S. 20. Kayan Y. 10. Ntcham O. (C) 15. Diabbate A. B. 21. Holse C. 7. Tavsan E. 9. Marius
Substitutes
30. Bruno Viana 25. Bulut B. 6. Celik I. 12. Elia M. 7. Karaca E. 8. Keskin E. 42. Makouta G. 18. Mogultay B. 1. Taskiran E. (G) 10. Yalcin G.	23. Albak E. 70. Coulibaly T. 1. Kocuk O. (G) 29. Makoumbou A. 37. Satka L. 17. Tomasson L. 33. Ustun E. (G) 4. Van Drongelen R. 18. Yavru Z.
Coaches
Pereira J.	Fink T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
17', Tavsan E. 🟨,
23', Mounie S. 🟨,
37', 0 - 1, Tavsan E. ⚽, Diabbate A. B. (A),
39', 0 - 2, Ntcham O. ⚽, Marius (A),
45', Diabbate A. B. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Kaya I. ↓, Elia M. ↑,
46', Akdag U. ↓, Mogultay B. ↑,
48', Lima N. 🟨,
57', Cift Y. E. ↓, Satka L. ↑,
57', Diabbate A. B. ↓, Van Drongelen R. ↑,
68', Mounie S. ↓, Yalcin G. ↑,
69', Aksoy F. ↓, Celik I. ↑,
72', Ntcham O. ↓, Makoumbou A. ↑,
87', Maestro ↓, Makouta G. ↑,
87', Hwang Ui-Jo ↓, Keskin E. ↑,
89', Gonul S. 🟨,
90', Tavsan E. ↓, Coulibaly T. ↑,
90', Mendes J. ↓, Albak E. ↑,
90+1', 0 - 3, Marius ⚽, Holse C. (A),
90+6', 1 - 3, Yalcin G. ⚽,
90+7', 2 - 3, Elia M. ⚽, Ruan (A),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alanyaspor won 1.

Alanyaspor is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Samsunspor's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Alanyaspor may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Alanyaspor will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Alanyaspor: Ozdemir Y. (Suspended)

There will not play in Samsunspor: Assoumou J. (Knee Injury) Cetin B. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Samsunspor: Yuksel C. (Inactive)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Alanyaspor won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:24. (average 1.2:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Alanyaspor won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1.5:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Alanyaspor	7	3	3	1	8:6	2	12
16	Samsunspor	7	1	1	5	6:15	-9	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alanyaspor
Turkish Cup
23.04.26	Beşiktaş - Alanyaspor	3:0 ✺
Turkish Super League
19.04.26	Kasımpaşa - Alanyaspor	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Alanyaspor - Trabzonspor	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Gaziantep - Alanyaspor	1:1 ✺
18.03.26	Alanyaspor - Kocaelispor	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLTW
- Samsunspor
Turkish Cup
23.04.26	Samsunspor - Trabzonspor	0:1 penalties ✺
Turkish Super League
19.04.26	Samsunspor - Beşiktaş	2:1 ✺
13.04.26	Eyüpspor - Samsunspor	1:2 ✺
09.04.26	Çaykur Rizespor - Samsunspor	4:1 ✺
05.04.26	Samsunspor - Konyaspor	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
01.12.25	Samsunspor - Alanyaspor	1:1
21.04.25	Alanyaspor - Samsunspor	1:0
24.11.24	Samsunspor - Alanyaspor	1:1
18.05.24	Samsunspor - Alanyaspor	1:1
Turkish Cup
17.01.24	Alanyaspor - Samsunspor	1:3 ET
Turkish Super League
25.12.23	Alanyaspor - Samsunspor	3:1
Turkish First League
12.03.16	Samsunspor - Alanyaspor	5:1

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