Match Info

SPAIN: Tercera RFEF - Group 7 - Round 23

Date: 23 February 2025, Sunday


	Alcalá		Galapagar

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.75	5.6
	1.59	3.69	4.95
	1.55	3.92	5.37	Watch
	1.59	3.74	5.72
	1.53	3.75	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.41)	3.77 ↓ (4.5)	5.45 ↓ (5.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alcalá
58.8%

Draw
24.3%

Galapagar
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.5%

20.2%

15.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68%

19.2%

14.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alcalá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alcalá's form might have worsened.

Galapagar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcalá than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alcalá, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Galapagar than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Alcalá - Galapagar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Marin D. ⚽,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
54', 2 - 0, Marin D. ⚽,
59', 3 - 0, Portero A. ⚽,
63', 4 - 0, Marin D. ⚽,
73', 5 - 0, Rodriguez S. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 7 (Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Alcalá won 0.

Alcalá in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Galapagar is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Alcalá is certain favorite.

Our prediction for today's Alcalá to win the game is with odds 1.4.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Alcalá won 0 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:10 (average 1:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Alcalá won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:4 (average 0.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RSD Alcalá
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 7
16.02.25	Trival Valderas - Alcalá	1:2 ✺
09.02.25	Alcalá - Aravaca	2:0 ✺
01.02.25	México - Alcalá	1:2 ✺
26.01.25	Alcalá - Parla	3:0 ✺
19.01.25	Villaverde San Andrés - Alcalá	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWWWW
- CD Galapagar
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 7
16.02.25	Galapagar - Rayo Vallecano B	2:3 ✺
09.02.25	Leganés B - Galapagar	0:2 ✺
02.02.25	Galapagar - Tres Cantos	1:1 ✺
26.01.25	Carabanchel - Galapagar	2:0 ✺
19.01.25	Galapagar - El Álamo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 7
13.10.24	Galapagar - Alcalá	2:2
04.02.24	Galapagar - Alcalá	3:3
17.09.23	Alcalá - Galapagar	0:2
19.02.23	Alcalá - Galapagar	1:1
16.10.22	Galapagar - Alcalá	1:1
12.03.22	Galapagar - Alcalá	0:0
13.11.21	Alcalá - Galapagar	0:1

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