Match Info

National League - Round 4

Date: 28 August 2026, Friday

Location: EBB Stadium at Recreation Ground (Aldershot)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Aldershot Town		Harrogate Town

	1	X	2
	2.70	3.75	2.10
	2.87	3.30	2.10
	3.15	3.45	2.08
	3.05	3.77	2.25
	2.95	3.68	2.18	Watch
	3	3.6	2.18
	2.94	3.50	2.11
	2.9	3.65	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↓ (3.27)	3.59 ↓ (3.72)	2.15 ↑ (1.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aldershot Town
31.3%

Draw
25.7%

Harrogate Town
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.4%

25%

46.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

24%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aldershot Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Harrogate Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aldershot Town than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Harrogate Town than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Harrogate Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Aldershot Town - Harrogate Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hayes N. (G) 5. Oshilaja K. 12. Stickland M. (C) 17. Dyce T. 18. Adom-Malaki N. 2. Efete M. 23. Lawless C. 6. Odusanya D. 10. Tuma B. 9. Dinanga M. 7. Abrahams T.	1. Oxley M. (G) 24. Cass L. 4. Baptiste A. 5. Bradbury T. 2. Payne L. 15. Hobson B. 25. Johnson B. 3. Bristow E. 7. Thomson G. (C) 23. Dolaghan B. 9. McCoulsky S.
Substitutes
27. Alves J. 15. Frimpong K. 16. Matton J. 24. Oladunjoye E. 13. Patmore C. (G) 21. Peart B. 20. Wyllie M.	6. Burrell W. 17. Hmami J. 11. McGowan W. 35. McGuckin C. 22. Pimlott O. 30. Watson R. (G) 14. Williams M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Abrahams T. ⚽, Dinanga M. (A),
31', 2 - 0, Abrahams T. ⚽, Oshilaja K. (A),
40', Lawless C. 🟨,
45+2', 3 - 0, Abrahams T. ⚽, Dyce T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Dolaghan B. ↓, Hmami J. ↑,
46', Payne L. ↓, Williams M. ↑,
47', Johnson B. 🟨,
55', 3 - 1, Hmami J. ⚽,
56', McCoulsky S. 🟨,
71', Thomson G. ↓, McGowan W. ↑,
71', McCoulsky S. ↓, McGuckin C. ↑,
72', Abrahams T. ↓, Wyllie M. ↑,
79', Dinanga M. ↓, Peart B. ↑,
85', Lawless C. ↓, Frimpong K. ↑,
90+5', Cass L. 🟨,

Preview

Aldershot has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Harrogate is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Aldershot may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Harrogate has had a series of home games.

Harrogate will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Aldershot won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:8. (average 0.5:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Aldershot won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Aldershot Town - the odds 3.27 are the expected chance of winning is 28.39%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aldershot Town
English National League
22.08.26	Kidderminster Harriers - Aldershot Town	1:1 ✺
English National League Cup
18.08.26	Aldershot Town - Fulham U21	2:3 penalties ✺
English National League
15.08.26	Aldershot Town - Hartlepool United	0:1 ✺
08.08.26	Boston United - Aldershot Town	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Braintree Town - Aldershot Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TLLWW
- Harrogate Town
English National League
22.08.26	Harrogate Town - Barrow	2:2 ✺
15.08.26	Wealdstone - Harrogate Town	1:3 ✺
08.08.26	Harrogate Town - Solihull Moors	5:2 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Harrogate Town - Scarborough Athletic	2:1 ✺
25.07.26	Harrogate Town - Doncaster Rovers	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

English National League
01.02.20	Aldershot Town - Harrogate Town	1:1
26.10.19	Harrogate Town - Aldershot Town	1:0
08.12.18	Harrogate Town - Aldershot Town	4:1
18.08.18	Aldershot Town - Harrogate Town	0:2

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