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Current Win Probability
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 32%
Draw 27.3%
Tapatío 40.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
44.5%
30.2%
25.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
47.3%
32.1%
23.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alebrijes de Oaxaca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alebrijes de Oaxaca's form might have worsened.
Tapatío has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tapatío's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alebrijes de Oaxaca than the current prediction. (+15.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alebrijes de Oaxaca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tapatío than the current prediction. (-16.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tapatío, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tapatío Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Rodas C. (G) 15. Villa P. 4. Alvarez K. (C) 12. Reyes J. 3. Justo A. 22. Jaimes Rodriguez T. 19. Fadika B. 6. Arellano A. 28. Jeffus L. 11. Andrey Marcos 8. Barreda I.
45. Garcia E. (G) 43. Parra R. 53. Soldati C. 55. Esparza S. 48. Jimenez L. 63. Cendejas M. (C) 60. Ledesma L. 50. Medina C. 58. Uribe J. 64. Latorre D. 47. Garcia G.
Substitutes
7. Ballesteros O. 177. Bustos J. 26. Carreon M. 23. Hernandez A. 25. Martinez D. 21. Paz Vasquez O. (G) 27. Sanchez E. 34. Torres W. 14. Vazquez Hernandez A. 35. Vizarretea S.
182. Calderon L. 65. Corona C. 46. Hernandez C. 61. Leyva Cortes A. A. (G) 54. Nuno R. 195. Rosales D. 69. Villaseca D. 44. Zamora S.
Coaches
Hernandez E.
Melendez J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Villa P. 🟨,
27', Cendejas M. 🟨,
37', Fadika B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', Barreda I. ↓, Martinez D. ↑,
56', 1 - 0, Fadika B. ⚽,
62', Cendejas M. ↓, Zamora S. ↑,
62', Ledesma L. ↓, Villaseca D. ↑,
62', Medina C. ↓, Calderon L. ↑,
63', Martinez D. (Penalty Awarded),
77', Uribe J. ↓, Nuno R. ↑,
78', Arellano A. ↓, Sanchez E. ↑,
78', Andrey Marcos ↓, Torres W. ↑,
79', Torres W. 🟨,
86', 1 - 1, Garcia G. ⚽, Soldati C. (A),
87', Soldati C. 🟨,
89', Esparza S. ↓, Hernandez C. ↑,
90+3', Jaimes Rodriguez T. ↓, Hernandez A. ↑,
90+3', Jeffus L. ↓, Ballesteros O. ↑,
90+5', Jimenez L. 🟨,
Preview
Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 3.
In recent matches, Alebrijes de Oaxaca has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Tapatío is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Alebrijes de Oaxaca is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:20. (average 1.4:1.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 2:1.5).
Mexico
Usa
Watch
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Rodas C. (G) 
Fadika B. 
Andrey Marcos 
Ballesteros O. 
Martinez D. 
Villaseca D. 
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