Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 4

Date: 13 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca (Oaxaca de Juárez)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Alebrijes de Oaxaca		Tepatitlán de Morelos

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.57	3.90	4.40
	1.72	3.75	4.25	Watch
	1.64	4.25	4.99
	1.75	3.91	4.23	Watch
	1.62	3.95	5.00
	1.60	4.30	4.71	Watch
	1.57	4.00	4.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (2.95)	4.01 ↑ (3.13)	4.6 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
56.7%

Draw
23.2%

Tepatitlán de Morelos
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

29.5%

39.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alebrijes de Oaxaca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+25.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alebrijes de Oaxaca's performance.

Tepatitlán de Morelos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tepatitlán de Morelos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tepatitlán de Morelos Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Alebrijes de Oaxaca will win (votes: 11 - 91.7%). Tepatitlán will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alebrijes de Oaxaca: 76.1% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alebrijes de Oaxaca (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rodas C. (G) 15. Villa P. 12. Reyes J. 3. Justo A. 4. Alvarez K. (C) 14. Vazquez Hernandez A. 19. Fadika B. 6. Arellano A. 28. Jeffus L. 8. Barreda I. 11. Andrey Marcos	1. Estrada A. (G) 17. Gonzalez S. 4. Alonso R. 19. Castaneda S. 22. Sanguinetti F. 11. Olvera G. 2. Sanchez G. 28. Lopez M. 12. Rodriguez S. 5. Villalpando D. (C) 31. Casas B.
Substitutes
7. Ballesteros O. 177. Bustos J. 26. Carreon M. 17. Collazo D. 23. Hernandez A. 25. Martinez D. 21. Paz Vasquez O. (G) 27. Sanchez E. 33. Tecpanecatl A. 34. Torres W.	33. Alcantar E. 32. Arevalo T. 27. Avila H. 30. Gatica A. (G) 34. Henestrosa J. 18. Martinez E. 25. Moreno A. 9. Paez L. 14. Rios J. 24. Valencia V.
Coaches
Bolanos Fabian G. R.	Bartolotta D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Rodriguez S. ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
21', Villalpando D. 🟥,
44', Olvera G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Villa P. ↓, Martinez D. ↑,
46', Casas B. ↓, Valencia V. ↑,
46', Gonzalez S. ↓, Avila H. ↑,
49', Lopez M. 🟨,
50', Alvarez K. 🟨,
50', Andrey Marcos 🟨,
54', 1 - 0, Andrey Marcos ⚽,
66', Sanchez G. ↓, Henestrosa J. ↑,
66', Moreno A. ↓, Arevalo T. ↑,
72', Estrada A. 🟥,
86', Fadika B. ↓, Bustos J. ↑,
86', Andrey Marcos ↓, Torres W. ↑,
86', Arellano A. ↓, Tecpanecatl A. ↑,
86', Vazquez Hernandez A. ↓, Ballesteros O. ↑,
90+1', Jeffus L. 🟨,
90+2', Justo A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 1.

In this match, Alebrijes de Oaxaca is a strong favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 8:23. (average 0.7:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:10. (average 0.7:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Alebrijes Oaxaca	11	3	1	7	8:22	-14	10
16	Tepatitlan de Morelos	10	2	0	8	8:29	-21	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
06.08.26	Tlaxcala - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	0:2 ✺
30.07.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Dorados	0:2 ✺
25.07.26	Venados - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:0 ✺
17.04.26	Correcaminos UAT - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1:3 ✺
10.04.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Jaiba Brava	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WLLWL
- Tepatitlán de Morelos
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
07.08.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético La Paz	0:5 ✺
31.07.26	Correcaminos UAT - Tepatitlán de Morelos	3:1 ✺
24.07.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Alacranes de Durango	0:1 ✺
30.05.26	Jaiba Brava - Tepatitlán de Morelos	4:3 penalties ✺
23.05.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Jaiba Brava	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
03.04.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:0
24.10.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:1
11.04.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	4:0
27.10.24	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:2
26.03.24	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0
25.10.23	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:1
08.02.23	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:3

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