Match Info

Date: 12 February 2022, Saturday


	Alfreton Town		Gateshead

	1	X	2
	4	3.7	1.66
	4.5	3.7	1.61
	4.8	3.95	1.56
	4.71	3.86	1.65
	4.33	3.7	1.67
	4.75	4	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.52 ↑ (3.43)	3.82 ↑ (3.54)	1.63 ↓ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alfreton Town
20.2%

Draw
23.8%

Gateshead
56%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.5%

25.7%

47.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.7%

20.1%

61.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alfreton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alfreton Town's form might have worsened.

Gateshead has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gateshead's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alfreton Town than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gateshead than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gateshead could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alfreton Town - Gateshead Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League).

Alfreton is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Gateshead is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Gateshead have a series of home games.

In this match Gateshead is a favorite.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Alfreton won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 14-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Alfreton won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alfreton Town
English National League North
08.02.22	Alfreton Town - Kettering Town	0:0 ✺
05.02.22	Bradford Park Avenue - Alfreton Town	5:0 ✺
29.01.22	Alfreton Town - Spennymoor Town	3:2 ✺
25.01.22	Guiseley - Alfreton Town	4:2 ✺
22.01.22	Alfreton Town - Blyth Spartans	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TLWLL
- Gateshead
English National League North
08.02.22	Gateshead - Blyth Spartans	3:0 ✺
05.02.22	Gateshead - Fylde	0:3 ✺
29.01.22	York City - Gateshead	1:1 ✺
22.01.22	Gateshead - Leamington	3:1 ✺
18.01.22	Gateshead - AFC Telford United	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
13.11.21	Gateshead - Alfreton Town	2:1
07.12.19	Gateshead - Alfreton Town	3:1
English FA Cup
19.10.16	Gateshead - Alfreton Town	2:3 ET
15.10.16	Alfreton Town - Gateshead	2:2
English National League
02.12.14	Alfreton Town - Gateshead	1:2
07.10.14	Gateshead - Alfreton Town	2:0
22.02.14	Alfreton Town - Gateshead	1:1

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