Match Info

ENGLAND: National League North - Round 37

Date: 9 April 2024, Tuesday


	Alfreton Town		Gloucester City

	1	X	2
	1.23	5.5	9.5
	1.22	5.5	12
	1.25	5.98	9.78
	1.25	5.98	9.79
	1.22	5.5	10
	1.21	5.67	10.8
	1.24	5.4	9.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.6)	5.65 ↑ (4.02)	10.21 ↑ (4.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alfreton Town
74.7%

Draw
16.3%

Gloucester City
9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

23.1%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.7%

22.8%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alfreton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alfreton Town's performance.

Gloucester City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gloucester City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alfreton Town than the current prediction. (-16%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alfreton Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gloucester City than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gloucester City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alfreton Town - Gloucester City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
38', 1 - 0, Thewlis J. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', 2 - 0, Waldock L. ⚽,
54', 3 - 0, Thewlis J. ⚽,

Preview

Postponed due to waterlogged pitch.

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 23 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Alfreton won 0.

Alfreton is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Gloucester is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Alfreton could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Alfreton is a favorite.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Alfreton won 1 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 11-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Alfreton won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alfreton Town
English National League North
06.04.24	Alfreton Town - Curzon Ashton	0:0 ✺
01.04.24	Chester - Alfreton Town	0:2 ✺
29.03.24	Alfreton Town - Rushall Olympic	1:0 ✺
23.03.24	Brackley Town - Alfreton Town	1:0 ✺
16.03.24	Alfreton Town - Bishops Stortford	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TWWLW
- Gloucester City
English National League North
06.04.24	Gloucester City - Chester	1:6 ✺
01.04.24	Peterborough Sports - Gloucester City	1:0 ✺
29.03.24	Gloucester City - Brackley Town	1:1 ✺
23.03.24	Spennymoor Town - Gloucester City	3:0 ✺
16.03.24	Warrington Town - Gloucester City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
21.10.23	Gloucester City - Alfreton Town	3:0
15.04.23	Gloucester City - Alfreton Town	1:1
15.10.22	Alfreton Town - Gloucester City	1:2
22.02.22	Gloucester City - Alfreton Town	0:0
11.12.21	Alfreton Town - Gloucester City	1:1
09.02.21	Alfreton Town - Gloucester City	Canceled
28.01.20	Alfreton Town - Gloucester City	6:1

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