The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Alfreton Town 34.3%
Draw 25.7%
Guiseley 40%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
41.6%
28.5%
29.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
43.2%
29.6%
28.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alfreton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alfreton Town's form might have worsened.
Guiseley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Guiseley's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alfreton Town than the current prediction. (+8.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alfreton Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guiseley than the current prediction. (-11.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Guiseley, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Alfreton Town - Guiseley Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Odunaiya D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
Preview
A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 11th and 4th in the Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division PlayoffsQuarter~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alfreton won 3.
In recent outings, Alfreton has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Guiseley shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).
Guiseley could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Alfreton has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:8 (averaging 1.5:1.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Alfreton against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 2:2 goals (averaging 1:1 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
4
Guiseley
11
7
1
3
24:11
13
22
8
Alfreton
12
6
0
6
18:13
5
18
Last Results with these Odds
Alfreton Town - the odds 2.12 are the expected chance of winning is 41.62%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.
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