Match Info

National League North - Round 25

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday


	Alfreton Town		Hereford

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.7	2.35
	2.3	3.3	2.55
	2.48	3.45	2.52
	2.56	3.44	2.61
	2.5	3.58	2.56	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.63
	2.48	3.22	2.52
	2.33	3.5	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (2.72)	3.43 ↓ (3.64)	2.55 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Alfreton Town
37.4%

Draw
26.7%

Hereford
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

25.5%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

24.4%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alfreton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Hereford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alfreton Town than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hereford than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hereford could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Alfreton Town - Hereford Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Alfreton will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Hereford will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Salmon L. ⚽,
36', 2 - 0, Lissimore K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
68', 2 - 1, Munday G. ⚽,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 23 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alfreton won 1.

Alfreton has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Hereford's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Alfreton may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Alfreton won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:24. (average 1.5:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Alfreton won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:7. (average 1.5:0.9).

Outrights of English National League North for now

Hereford: 12.98%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Hereford	10	7	2	1	22:5	17	23

Last Results with these Odds

Alfreton Town - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 34.13%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Hereford - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 40.36%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alfreton Town
English National League North
17.03.26	Southport - Alfreton Town	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Alfreton Town - Peterborough Sports	0:2 ✺
10.03.26	Alfreton Town - Radcliffe	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	AFC Telford United - Alfreton Town	4:1 ✺
03.03.26	Kidderminster Harriers - Alfreton Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLTLL
- Hereford FC
English National League North
17.03.26	Hereford - Fylde	1:4 ✺
14.03.26	Hereford - South Shields	2:1 ✺
10.03.26	Hereford - Leamington	5:1 ✺
07.03.26	Worksop Town - Hereford	2:3 ✺
03.03.26	Scarborough Athletic - Hereford	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
30.08.25	Hereford - Alfreton Town	2:0
22.02.25	Hereford - Alfreton Town	2:0
05.10.24	Alfreton Town - Hereford	0:0
12.03.24	Hereford - Alfreton Town	3:3
24.10.23	Alfreton Town - Hereford	3:1
11.02.23	Hereford - Alfreton Town	0:0
03.09.22	Alfreton Town - Hereford	1:1

Upcoming Matches