Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 26

Date: 1 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Mirador (Algeciras)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Algeciras		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.75	3.1
	2.27	2.85	3.1
	2.38	3.05	3.3
	2.29	2.97	3.18	Watch
	2.41	2.88	3.25
	2.27	2.85	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.14)	2.89 ↓ (3.05)	3.17 ↓ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Algeciras
39.5%

Draw
31.7%

Mérida AD
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

29.9%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

28.6%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Algeciras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Algeciras than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Algeciras, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Algeciras - Mérida AD Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Garcia L. (G) 20. Adot Barandiaran P. A. 22. Coch A. 5. Gaixas A. 11. Sanchez T. 19. Illesca M. 24. Larrea P. 10. Esteban Diego 8. Turrillo I. (C) 3. Merchan D. 7. Rodri	1. Juanpa (G) 19. Pipe 18. Falcon E. 22. Athuman I. 3. Jimenez N. 6. Miki 21. Beneit R. 11. Doncel C. 7. Alvaro J. 14. Beltran L. 8. Eslava J.
Substitutes
21. Celorio N. 31. Dominiguez C. 23. Gomez J. 9. Gonzaga Delage Cruzado L. 18. Hernandez Garcia J. 14. Javi Alonso 17. Leiva A. 27. Recagno D. 1. Venteo I. (G)	4. Bonaque M. 24. Carvalho M. 28. del Cerro S. 17. Ganet P. 26. Macia I. (G) 9. Mizzian M. 20. Nabian H. 5. Pareja Alvarez L. 15. Prevedini M. 16. Sanchez E. 13. Vicente D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', Pipe 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Turrillo I. ⚽,
37', Merchan D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Jimenez N. ↓, Ganet P. ↑,
46', Beneit R. ↓, del Cerro S. ↑,
57', Turrillo I. 🟨,
57', Turrillo I. 🟨,
60', Doncel C. 🟨,
73', 1 - 1, Carvalho M. ⚽,
73', Rodri ↓, Gonzaga Delage Cruzado L. ↑,
76', Gaixas A. 🟨,
88', 🟨,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Algeciras won 2.

Algeciras has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Mérida AD is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Algeciras will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Algeciras won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12:13 (average 1.5:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Algeciras won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:2 (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Algeciras CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
23.02.25	Marbella - Algeciras	3:1 ✺
15.02.25	Algeciras - Recreativo Huelva	0:0 ✺
09.02.25	Ceuta - Algeciras	2:0 ✺
31.01.25	Algeciras - Real Madrid Castilla	1:4 ✺
26.01.25	Sevilla B - Algeciras	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTLLL
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
23.02.25	Mérida AD - Real Murcia	1:4 ✺
15.02.25	Intercity - Mérida AD	3:1 ✺
08.02.25	Mérida AD - Alcorcón	2:1 ✺
01.02.25	Betis B - Mérida AD	0:4 ✺
26.01.25	Ibiza - Mérida AD	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
06.09.24	Mérida AD - Algeciras	1:0
13.04.24	Mérida AD - Algeciras	3:1
17.09.23	Algeciras - Mérida AD	2:0
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.04.23	Algeciras - Mérida AD	1:0
30.10.22	Mérida AD - Algeciras	3:3
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
17.11.19	Mérida AD - Algeciras	4:2
28.02.16	Algeciras - Mérida AD	1:2

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