Match Info

Turkish Cup - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 28 October 2025, Tuesday


	Aliaga		Serik Belediyespor

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.6	4.5
	1.6	3.9	4.75
	1.19	6.34	11.93	Watch
	1.72	3.7	4.53	Watch
	2.28	3.35	2.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (2.79)	4.18 ↑ (3.23)	5.71 ↑ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aliaga
58.7%

Draw
23.9%

Serik Belediyespor
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

28.2%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.4%

26.8%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aliaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+26%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aliaga's performance.

Serik Belediyespor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Serik Belediyespor might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aliaga than the current prediction. (-24.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aliaga that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Serik Belediyespor than the current prediction. (+19.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Serik Belediyespor could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.3%	0%	7.7%

Aliaga - Serik Belediyespor Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Aliaga will win (votes: 12 - 92.3%). Serik Belediyespor will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aliaga: 77.8% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 2nd Half - Aliaga (2.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Aliaga (2.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Aliaga (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Aliaga will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Aliaga (votes: 12 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Gumus Y. ⚽,
33', 1 - 1, Ozcan S. ⚽,
35', 2 - 1, Yilmaz I. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
71', 2 - 2, Yukseloglu H. ⚽,
74', 3 - 2, Saymak M. ⚽,
80', 4 - 2, ⚽,
90+5', 4 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Aliaga has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Serik Belediyespor is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aliaga FK
Turkish Second League Red Group
25.10.25	Aliaga - Yeni Mersin İdman Yurdu	3:0 ✺
19.10.25	1461 Trabzon - Aliaga	0:3 ✺
05.10.25	Muş Spor - Aliaga	2:2 ✺
28.09.25	Somaspor - Aliaga	0:3 ✺
21.09.25	Aliaga - Ankara Demirspor	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWTWW
- Serik Belediyespor
Turkish First League
25.10.25	Pendikspor - Serik Belediyespor	4:0 ✺
20.10.25	Serik Belediyespor - Amed SK	1:2 ✺
05.10.25	Sivasspor - Serik Belediyespor	0:0 ✺
28.09.25	Serik Belediyespor - Erzurumspor	1:1 ✺
23.09.25	Çorum - Serik Belediyespor	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 LLTTT

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