Match Info

PERU: Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 5

Date: 7 March 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima)

Referee: Quiroz J. C. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	L1 Max, Liga 1 Play


	Alianza Lima		Ayacucho

	1	X	2
	1.22	5.75	12	Watch
	1.23	5.5	9
	1.23	6.3	11	Watch
	1.22	6.01	11.72
	1.25	5.7	11.42	Watch
	1.22	6	12
	1.23	5.78	11.6	Watch
	1.23	6.3	11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.49)	5.92 ↑ (4.08)	11.22 ↑ (6.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Lima
75.9%

Draw
15.8%

Ayacucho
8.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.6%

22.8%

14.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.9%

21.7%

13.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alianza Lima's performance.

Ayacucho has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ayacucho might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alianza Lima that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayacucho than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ayacucho could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alianza Lima - Ayacucho Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Campos A. (G) 14. Huaman M. 37. Delgado J. 35. Velasquez J. 13. Lagos R. 15. Castillo J. 7. Gaibor F. 11. D'Arrigo J. 27. Quevedo K. 19. Cantero A. 34. Paolo Guerrero	23. Valencia J. (G) 80. Medina F. 22. Bilbao J. 2. Navarro G. 4. Yovera A. 18. Orue D. 19. Uribe C. 3. Ganoza M. 8. Ramirez D. 7. Ferreira M. 24. Perez Azambuya E. M.
Substitutes
28. Aguirre G. 9. Barcos H. 8. Castillo E. 6. Garces R. 44. Gomez C. 16. Succar M. 21. Trauco M. 23. Viscarra G. (G) 5. Zambrano C.	27. Barrios K. 29. Falconi J. 1. Izaguirre P. (G) 77. Lucumi J. 15. Ratto P. 9. Salem J. 5. Tamariz A. 6. Tuesta J. 17. Villamarin J.
Coaches
Gorosito N.	Ospina E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Paolo Guerrero (Pen),
41', 2 - 0, Lagos R. ⚽, Cantero A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Yovera A. ↓, Tamariz A. ↑,
46', Ramirez D. ↓, Lucumi J. ↑,
58', Bilbao J. 🟨,
66', Ferreira M. ↓, Villamarin J. ↑,
66', Medina F. ↓, Falconi J. ↑,
67', Navarro G. 🟨,
68', Quevedo K. ↓, Aguirre G. ↑,
69', Cantero A. ↓, Succar M. ↑,
71', Uribe C. ↓, Salem J. ↑,
74', Ganoza M. 🟨,
78', Succar M. 🟨,
87', D'Arrigo J. ↓, Trauco M. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Alianza Lima won 3.

Alianza Lima in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Ayacucho is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Alianza Lima could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Alianza Lima is absolute favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Alianza Lima won 12 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 34:19 (average 1.7:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Alianza Lima won 7 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 21:7 (average 2.1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Lima
Copa Libertadores
04.03.25	Deportes Iquique - Alianza Lima	1:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
01.03.25	Sporting Cristal - Alianza Lima	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.02.25	Boca Juniors - Alianza Lima	2:2 penalties ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
21.02.25	Alianza Lima - Juan Pablo II College	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
18.02.25	Alianza Lima - Boca Juniors	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 31.5 WWWWW
- Ayacucho FC
Peruvian Liga 1
02.03.25	Ayacucho - Sport Huancayo	1:1 ✺
22.02.25	Sport Boys - Ayacucho	2:1 ✺
17.02.25	Ayacucho - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	3:2 ✺
08.02.25	Atlético Grau - Ayacucho	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
22.01.25	Ayacucho - Los Chankas	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
25.10.22	Ayacucho - Alianza Lima	0:1
26.06.22	Alianza Lima - Ayacucho	2:0
18.07.21	Alianza Lima - Ayacucho	4:1
26.10.20	Alianza Lima - Ayacucho	1:2
23.02.20	Ayacucho - Alianza Lima	2:0
08.09.19	Alianza Lima - Ayacucho	2:0
23.03.19	Ayacucho - Alianza Lima	2:0

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