Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 25 February 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Alberto J. Armando (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Maza P. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, Fox Sports, Mi Telefe App, Mi Telefe, Telefe
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	Sportdigital+
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1
North-central-america	ESPN 3 North
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	beIN Sports, LaLiga+
Turkey	Exxen, S Sport, S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	Disney+, Pluto TV


	Boca Juniors		Alianza Lima

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.75	8.5	Watch
	1.38	4.5	8	Watch
	1.38	4.63	10.34
	1.37	4.59	9.68	Watch
	1.36	4.33	8	Watch
	1.38	4.82	8.46	Watch
	1.38	4.5	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↑ (1.33)	4.59 ↓ (4.8)	8.71 ↑ (8.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

Watch this match and Copa Libertadores with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Boca Juniors
68.7%

Draw
20.5%

Alianza Lima
10.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.8%

19.3%

10.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.5%

17.8%

11.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boca Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	9.1%	18.2%

Boca Juniors - Alianza Lima Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Boca Juniors will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Alianza Lima will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Boca Juniors: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Marchesin A. (G) 17. Advincula L. 5. Battaglia R. 6. Rojo M. 3. Saracchi M. 43. Delgado M. 21. Herrera A. 16. Miguel Merentiel 8. Carlos Palacios 22. Zenon K. 10. Cavani E.	23. Viscarra G. (G) 22. Enrique G. 5. Zambrano C. 6. Garces R. 21. Trauco M. 8. Castillo E. 4. Noriega E. 20. Lavandeira Hernandez P. 27. Quevedo K. 10. Ceppelini P. 9. Barcos H.
Substitutes
33. Aguirre B. 15. Alarcon Cepeda W. H. 24. Barinaga J. 23. Blanco L. 42. Blondel L. 12. Brey L. (G) 32. Costa A. 40. Di Lollo L. 9. Gimenez M. 19. Martegani A. 20. Velasco A. 7. Zeballos E.	28. Aguirre G. 17. Archimbaud J. 1. Campos A. (G) 19. Cantero A. 15. Castillo J. 11. D'Arrigo J. 7. Gaibor F. 14. Huaman M. 13. Lagos R. 34. Paolo Guerrero 16. Succar M. 35. Velasquez J.
Coaches
Gago F.	Gorosito N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Trauco M. (Own goal),
14', Noriega E. 🟨,
19', 1 - 1, Barcos H. ⚽, Ceppelini P. (A),
34', Ceppelini P. ↓, Gaibor F. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Quevedo K. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
58', 2 - 1, Zenon K. ⚽,
62', Miguel Merentiel 🟨,
63', Gaibor F. 🟨,
63', Garces R. 🟨,
64', Lavandeira Hernandez P. 🟨,
64', Saracchi M. 🟨,
75', Saracchi M. ↓, Blanco L. ↑,
75', Herrera A. ↓, Alarcon Cepeda W. H. ↑,
78', Barcos H. ↓, Paolo Guerrero ↑,
78', Miguel Merentiel ↓, Gimenez M. ↑,
78', Carlos Palacios ↓, Velasco A. ↑,
90+1', Paolo Guerrero 🟨,
90+3', Gimenez M. 🟨,
90+9', Marchesin A. ↓, Brey L. ↑,
Penalties (4 - 5)
1, Paolo Guerrero (Pen),
1, Rojo M. (Pen),
2, Gaibor F. (Pen),
2, Cavani E. (Pen),
3, Trauco M. (Pen),
3, Alarcon Cepeda W. H. (Pen),
4, Noriega E. (Pen),
4, Gimenez M. (Pen),
5, Lavandeira Hernandez P. (Pen),
5, Velasco A. (Pen),

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-1.

Recent matches Boca Juniors is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Alianza Lima is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Boca Juniors could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Alianza Lima have a series of home games.

In this match Boca Juniors is certain favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Boca Juniors won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:1 (average 1.7:0.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Boca Juniors won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boca Juniors
Argentinian Liga Profesional
22.02.25	Boca Juniors - Aldosivi	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
18.02.25	Alianza Lima - Boca Juniors	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
14.02.25	Banfield - Boca Juniors	0:1 ✺
11.02.25	Boca Juniors - Independiente Rivadavia	2:0 ✺
08.02.25	Racing - Boca Juniors	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLWWL
- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
21.02.25	Alianza Lima - Juan Pablo II College	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
18.02.25	Alianza Lima - Boca Juniors	1:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
15.02.25	Alianza Atlético - Alianza Lima	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
12.02.25	Alianza Lima - Nacional Asuncion	3:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
08.02.25	Alianza Lima - Cusco	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
18.02.25	Alianza Lima - Boca Juniors	1:0
16.05.18	Boca Juniors - Alianza Lima	5:0
01.03.18	Alianza Lima - Boca Juniors	0:0

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