Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 18 February 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima)

Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Disney+, Pluto TV


	Alianza Lima		Boca Juniors

	1	X	2
	2.8	2.9	2.7	Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.65
				Watch
	2.9	2.88	2.6	Watch
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↓ (3.01)	2.89 ↓ (3.28)	2.65 ↑ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

Watch this match and Copa Libertadores with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Lima
32.8%

Draw
32.1%

Boca Juniors
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

29.3%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.3%

31.9%

42.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Boca Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Boca Juniors could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	55.6%	22.2%

Alianza Lima - Boca Juniors Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Alianza Lima will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Boca Juniors will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Viscarra G. (G) 22. Enrique G. 5. Zambrano C. 6. Garces R. 21. Trauco M. 4. Noriega E. 8. Castillo E. 27. Quevedo K. 10. Ceppelini P. 7. Gaibor F. 9. Barcos H.	25. Marchesin A. (G) 24. Barinaga J. 5. Battaglia R. 40. Di Lollo L. 3. Saracchi M. 15. Alarcon Cepeda W. H. 38. Rey Domenech C. 42. Blondel L. 8. Carlos Palacios 20. Velasco A. 16. Miguel Merentiel
Substitutes
28. Aguirre G. 17. Archimbaud J. 1. Campos A. (G) 19. Cantero A. 39. Cari P. 15. Castillo J. 11. D'Arrigo J. 37. Delgado J. 44. Gomez C. 13. Lagos R. 16. Succar M. 35. Velasquez J.	33. Aguirre B. 23. Blanco L. 12. Brey L. (G) 51. Dalmasso S. 18. Fabra F. 9. Gimenez M. 11. Janson L. 19. Martegani A. 34. Mendia M. 53. Ruiz J. 7. Zeballos E. 22. Zenon K.
Coaches
Gorosito N.	Gago F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', Noriega E. 🟨,
4', 1 - 0, Ceppelini P. ⚽,
17', Trauco M. 🟨,
19', Quevedo K. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
32', Alarcon Cepeda W. H. 🟨,
34', Miguel Merentiel 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rey Domenech C. ↓, Zeballos E. ↑,
46', Miguel Merentiel ↓, Gimenez M. ↑,
48', Enrique G. 🟨,
72', Gaibor F. ↓, Archimbaud J. ↑,
72', Velasco A. ↓, Janson L. ↑,
75', Battaglia R. 🟨,
82', Carlos Palacios ↓, Zenon K. ↑,
85', Barcos H. 🟨,
90', Alarcon Cepeda W. H. ↓, Mendia M. ↑,
90', Barcos H. ↓, Succar M. ↑,
90+3', Zambrano C. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Alianza Lima could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Boca Juniors will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Alianza Lima won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:5 (average 0:2.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Alianza Lima won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
15.02.25	Alianza Atlético - Alianza Lima	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
12.02.25	Alianza Lima - Nacional Asuncion	3:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
08.02.25	Alianza Lima - Cusco	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.02.25	Nacional Asuncion - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
30.01.25	Alianza Lima - SD Aucas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LWWTW
- Boca Juniors
Argentinian Liga Profesional
14.02.25	Banfield - Boca Juniors	0:1 ✺
11.02.25	Boca Juniors - Independiente Rivadavia	2:0 ✺
08.02.25	Racing - Boca Juniors	2:0 ✺
02.02.25	Boca Juniors - Huracán Buenos Aires	2:1 ✺
29.01.25	Unión Santa Fe - Boca Juniors	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
16.05.18	Boca Juniors - Alianza Lima	5:0
01.03.18	Alianza Lima - Boca Juniors	0:0

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