Match Info

LPF - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Javier Cruz (Panama City)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Alianza Panama		San Francisco

	1	X	2
	2.65	2.90	2.50
	2.50	3.10	2.55
	2.88	2.91	2.6
	2.91	2.86	2.66	Watch
	2.8	2.7	2.5
	2.78	2.79	2.53	Watch
	2.7	2.85	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↑ (2.32)	2.87 ↓ (3.05)	2.55 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Panama
33%

Draw
31.5%

San Francisco
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

29.4%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.8%

30.3%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Panama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alianza Panama's form might have worsened.

San Francisco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Panama than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alianza Panama, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Francisco than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Alianza Panama - San Francisco Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gonzalez J. (G) 3. Ortega Y. 23. Marquinez J. 31. Machado A. (C) 5. Campos O. 51. Carvajal D. 13. Mendoza A. 16. Mitre R. 18. Perdomo R. 10. Chiari G. 9. Walters B.	12. Frias J. (G) 35. Wood J. 14. Calderon Kevin 3. Moreno S. 30. Peralta R. 7. Bonilla K. 8. Carrasquilla E. 20. Pimentel V. (C) 19. Medina V. 9. Dinolis R. 5. Browne O.
Substitutes
28. Alvarado J. 17. Asprilla J. 26. Garces J. 2. Landazuri F. 1. Lopez Giraldo J. (G) 8. Rangel G. 40. Rodriguez C. 22. Rodriguez M. 11. Spencer D. 19. Vargas D.	21. Flores I. (G) 83. General J. 99. Lopez J. 11. Mendez J. 16. Palacios S. 38. Popoff A. 17. Rodriguez R. 15. Saldana A. 31. Simmons V. 27. Simmons V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Walters B. ↓, Alvarado J. ↑,
46', Campos O. ↓, Spencer D. ↑,
50', 1 - 0, Mendoza A. ⚽,
61', Spencer D. 🟨,
62', Calderon Kevin ↓, Mendez J. ↑,
62', Mendoza A. ↓, Asprilla J. ↑,
67', Carvajal D. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,
70', Machado A. ↓, Garces J. ↑,
78', Bonilla K. ↓, Popoff A. ↑,
78', Moreno S. ↓, Rodriguez R. ↑,
79', Carrasquilla E. ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
79', 1 - 1, Dinolis R. ⚽,
81', Browne O. 🟨,
90+3', Medina V. 🟨,
90+4', Alvarado J. 🟨,
90+6', Wood J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 2.

Recent form of Alianza has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

San Francisco is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

San Francisco may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 9 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 29:21. (average 1.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Alianza won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:12. (average 1.5:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Alianza Panama - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 38.62%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

San Francisco - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 32%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Panama FC
Liga Panamena de Futbol
30.08.26	Union Cocle - Alianza Panama	2:2 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
27.08.26	Deportivo Mixco - Alianza Panama	2:0 ✺
Liga Panamena de Futbol
24.08.26	Alianza Panama - Tauro	2:0 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
20.08.26	Alianza Panama - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	1:3 ✺
Liga Panamena de Futbol
16.08.26	Alianza Panama - Plaza Amador	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TLWLL
- San Francisco FC
Liga Panamena de Futbol
29.08.26	San Francisco - Plaza Amador	4:1 ✺
22.08.26	Veraguas - San Francisco	3:3 ✺
14.08.26	San Francisco - Independiente de la Chorrera	2:1 ✺
02.08.26	Union Cocle - San Francisco	2:1 ✺
25.07.26	Deportivo Universitario - San Francisco	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Panamena de Futbol
02.03.26	Alianza Panama - San Francisco	3:3
21.11.25	San Francisco - Alianza Panama	1:2
16.11.25	Alianza Panama - San Francisco	1:1
15.09.25	Alianza Panama - San Francisco	1:1
28.03.25	San Francisco - Alianza Panama	1:2
20.09.24	Alianza Panama - San Francisco	3:1
22.03.24	San Francisco - Alianza Panama	1:0

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